Whoever you have as your Heisman favorite for the 2021 season, you can probably take North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell off the list after a worrisome Friday night performance against Virginia Tech in which he completed 17 of 32 passes for 208 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a number of potential throws that just took too long. The same guy that last season, per PFF, threw 17 touchdowns to just six interceptions on pass plays that took 2.5 seconds or longer to develop, was a mess on anything that wasn’t wide open from the snap. Howell’s lone touchdown, a 37-yard pass to Josh Downs in the second quarter, was a well-executed tunnel screen as opposed to a big-time throw, and big-time throws were generally in short supply.
Josh Downs : 8 catches for 123 yards & a TD pic.twitter.com/HDfRq67Vn0
— Lee Harvey (@AyeThatsLee) September 4, 2021
On those longer-developing plays against the Hokies, Howell completed six of 16 passes to his own targets, and two to his opponent, winding up with a passer rating of 8.3. He attempted three passes of 20 or more air yards, completing none. And with all that, Howell had the opportunity to bring his team to a tie late in the game until this unfortunate bit of performance art with less than a minute left.
This remained an interception after review for Virginia Tech. Wacky, wacky play to pick off Sam Howell again and hold off a UNC comeback attempt. pic.twitter.com/jwbi6XuH01
— The Comeback (@thecomeback) September 4, 2021
The final interception wasn’t a surprise if you’d seen the game to that point. Howell was looking too hard for big plays, it was obvious, and it didn’t work.
“At times I was getting frustrated and trying to do too much,” Howell said after the game. “They did a good job on defense, and we made a lot of mistakes. I was pressing too much, just trying to make a play.”
The primary issue seemed to be a wild swing between schemed-open first-read throws and Howell breaking off from structure to try hero throws that clearly weren’t there.
“He’s the one who turned the game around when he ran and made plays on his own,” head coach Mack Brown said. “He’s such a competitor. But you can’t expect him to throw the ball when you’ve got people around him all the time. You’ve got to protect your quarterback.”
That’s true to a point — Howell was sacked six times — but he was also pressured on just 11 of his dropbacks. That speaks in part to the success of the Tar Heels’ quick passing game, but it also implies that as much as North Carolina’s line was a problem on certain plays, it was just as much Howell’s hesitations on throws that got him in trouble. If you have to hitch and re-set this many times before a throw, and you’re not Lamar Jackson, perhaps it’s best to throw the ball into Section 235.
You can attribute some of this to the losses of Howell’s two best running backs, Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, and his two best receivers, Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, to the NFL. Anytime you have to replace that much talent and get on the same page with new primary targets, it can take some time. And based on Howell’s previous seasons, I wouldn’t yet assume that this level of processing failure is something we’re going to have to adhere to his name.
But it does present concerns for Howell’s future NFL value. This is the year for Howell to work on throwing with a more consistent base, making repeatable throws to the intermediate and deep levels of the field, and avoiding mistakes trying to zing hero balls where they should not be zinged. Howell is frequently compared to Baker Mayfield, but one has to do that in a more general than specific sense — even during his time in college, and even when trying crazy things on the field, Mayfield had just one three-interception game in his collegiate career — in 2013, for Texas Tech, against TCU. That was Mayfield’s freshman season. This is Howell’s third season as a starter, and if he’s to live up to that particular comparison, there’s a lot of work to be done.
Howell can help a lot by taking the pressure off himself.