The No. 15 North Carolina Tar Heels (7-1, 4-0 ACC) travel to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (3-5, 1-4) Saturday at noon ET (ACC Network). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the North Carolina vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Virginia’s Brennan Armstrong was among the best QBs in the nation in 2021 and put up monster numbers under coach Bronco Mendenhall. The same cannot be said under coach Tony Elliott. Armstrong has 1,826 passing yards in 8 games with 6 TDs compared to 9 INTs.
On the other side, Drake Maye, in his 1st season after replacing Sam Howell, has had a great season. In 8 games he has 2,671 passing yards (5th in the nation) with 29 TDs (tied for 1st in FBS) compared to only 3 INTs.
Coach Mack Brown has found another great QB. One who will be around for a few more seasons as the Tar Heels try to prove they belong in the playoff chase moving forward. The only thing keeping them from being elite is the defense which has given up an average of 31.3 points per game this season. If UNC can fix this side of the ball, they can beat anyone in the ACC.
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North Carolina at Virginia odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 1:37 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): North Carolina -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Virginia +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
- Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina -7.5 (-107) | Virginia +7.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 59.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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North Carolina at Virginia picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 42, Virginia 16
Moneyline
PASS. The ML is too high to make a wager in this one.
Against the spread
BET NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 (-107).
As discussed, Armstrong has been bad this season. Virginia has been unable to score and is coming off a 14-12 loss to Miami in a game that went to 4 overtimes and featured 0 TDs. The Cavaliers will not be able to score much in this game either, but the Tar Heels will. NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 (-107) is my FAVORITE PLAY in this matchup.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 59.5 (-112).
North Carolina will score. But I do not think Virginia will be able to score enough to get this game to the over.
Maye and his 29 TDs would make many think this game will go the other way. But in Virginia’s last 2 games, they have put up a total of 30 points against Miami and Georgia Tech. North Carolina is far superior to both teams and they will not allow Virginia to do much. I like UNDER 59.5 (-112).
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