North Carolina at Louisville odds, picks and predictions

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The North Carolina Tar Heels (8-5, 1-0 ACC) and the Louisville Cardinals (8-5, 1-1) meet Wednesday. Tip-off from KFC Yum! Center is set for 6 p.m. ET (ACC Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the North Carolina vs. Louisville odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

The Tar Heels secured their fourth win in the last 5 games Sunday, defeating the Campbell Fighting Camels 97-81. They didn’t cover as 28.5-point home favorites as the Over 155.5 hit. All 5 starters scored in double figures with G Ian Jackson leading the way with 26 points and G RJ Davis adding 23.

Louisville won for the third time in 4 games on Saturday, edging Eastern Kentucky Colonels 78-76 thanks to F Noah Waterman’s game-winning layup with 1.2 seconds left. They failed to cover as 21-point home favorites as the Under 157.5 hit. G Terrence Edwards Jr., a James Madison transfer, led the Cardinals with 20 points.

– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Men’s Basketball Coaches Poll

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North Carolina at Louisville odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds. Lines last updated at 7:33 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): North Carolina -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Louisville -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): North Carolina +1.5 (-115) | Louisville -1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 164.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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North Carolina at Louisville picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 81, Louisville 77

Moneyline

BET NORTH CAROLINA (-105).

This game being a pick’em feels like a gift. North Carolina’s challenging non-conference schedule, featuring Kansas, Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Michigan State, and Dayton, has prepared them for anything. Though they went 1-5 in those matchups, it forged a tougher team, as shown by their ACC-opening win over No. 18 UCLA.

Leadership at the guard position is critical in college basketball, and the Tar Heels have one of the best in Davis. Meanwhile, Louisville is still navigating a significant program rebuild. While they’ve shown improvement, they’re not yet ready to contend with a battle-tested team like North Carolina.

This line feels like a New Year’s gift—take the Tar Heels with confidence.

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Against the spread

PASS.

My advice is to just take the Tar Heels to win, don’t mess around with the spread.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 164.5 (-110).

The Cardinals have hit the Under in 9 of their 13 games this season, largely due to their struggles from beyond the arc, shooting just 29.9% from 3-point range. North Carolina has also gone Under in 4 of their last 6 games.

The Tar Heels’ 79.4 points allowed per game is misleading, as they’ve faced elite competition, including 3 teams ranked in the top 10 nationally in scoring. While there will undoubtedly be points scored in this matchup, the total feels a bit too high for comfort.

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