[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship bout in the main event, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet at Noche UFC — also known as UFC Fight Night 227 and UFC on ESPN+ 85 — on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook‘s lines around the Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
Records: Grasso (16-3-0) | Shevchenko (23-4-0)
The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Grasso won the women’s flyweight championship against Shevchenko at UFC 285 back in early March in a 4-round submission victory. Now, the first-ever Mexican female UFC championship makes her first title defense in a rematch in the special celebration of Mexican Independence Day in Vegas.
Grasso has rattled off 5 straight wins since a majority-decision setback against Carla Esparza in late Sept. 2019, with 2 submission wins and 3 unanimous-decision victories during the streak.
Shevchenko is looking to bounce back from her first setback since a split-decision loss to Amanda Nunes at UFC 215 in Sept. 2017, recording 9 straight wins before tapping against Grasso. Shevchenko won the strap from Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 in Dec. 2018 and had made 7 straight title defenses.
Shevchenko recorded 4 decision victories, 4 KO/TKO wins and is 1-1 via submission across her last 10 bouts.
Grasso holds a 4.88-to-3.29 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, although Shevchenko is much more accurate at 68.95% to just 54.20% for the champ. Shevchenko is also much better on the ground, posting a 2.57 takedown average while posting a 64.29% takedown accuracy percentage.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:36 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Grasso +144 (bet $100 to win $144) | Shevchenko -172 (bet $172 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -154 | Under +120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -130 | No +100)
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Noche UFC: Grasso vs. Shevchenko picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
SHEVCHENKO (-172) is going to play spoiler at Noche UFC, snatching the women’s flyweight strap back from the first-ever Mexican female champ.
Grasso surprised the former champ by turning the tables and submitting Shevchenko at UFC 285 at T-Mobile Arena. These 2 meet again at the same venue, and this is setting up for a trilogy fight at the top of the division.
Shevchenko was beaten at her own game, but she is easily better at takedowns and in the grappling game. She is versatile and can win fights in a number of ways, but I see this one ending via knockout, which is how she has notched 4 of her past 7 victories. As such, play METHOD OF VICTORY: SHEVCHENKO BY TKO/KO (+390) for a chance to multiply your initial wager by nearly 4 times.
Over/Under (O/U)
NO (+100): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE is a good value at even money.
While Grasso has gone the distance in 5 of her past 7 fights, 2 of the past 3 have been stoppages, including the first battle with Shevchenko. For the former champ, she has gone the distance just once in the past 4 fights since Nov. 2020.
If you don’t want to declare a winner but still want some action at a good price, play HOW FIGHT WILL END: KO/TKO (+300) for a chance to triple up, and you win if Grasso or Shevchenko scores the knockout.
Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2559]