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Is this a hot take? It feels like a hot take. Slandering the reigning Super Bowl champions isn’t going to sit right with many readers, but here it goes. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting gassed up entirely too often this offseason, with many outlets and media observers pointing to the Bucs as favorites to win their division. They shouldn’t be.
The oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook, for example, have Tampa Bay winning the NFC South at a -155 line, which would flip a $50 bet into an $82 haul. New Orleans isn’t too far behind at +275, which would yield $187 for the same ticket. Their divisional rivals, the Panthers and Falcons, have longer odds at +700. You do the math.
It’s easy to explain why the Bucs are favored so heavily — they’re the ones tossing the Lombardi Trophy between boats and enjoying avocado tequila at the Kentucky Derby. But it took a lot of luck for them to get here.
Tampa Bay did what every contender hopes for and got hot at the right time, cruising into the playoffs off of a four-game winning streak. They survived two wins against teams hamstrung by fraught quarterback situations to narrowly beat the Packers in the NFC title game before running the injury-ravaged Chiefs off the field during the Super Bowl.
If Taylor Heinicke hadn’t posted a quarterback rating 17 points below league average, the Bucs wouldn’t have made it out of the wild-card round. If Drew Brees hadn’t thrown three interceptions in a meltdown while Jared Cook gave the game away with a second-half fumble, things look very different. Losing one of Taysom Hill or Latavius Murray, but not both, might have given the Saints enough of a physical edge to avoid putting so much on Brees in the first place.
There are parallel timelines where Tom Brady’s legacy is in jeopardy after an 8-8 dud away from New England, and others where the Bucs are seen as desperate, trendy Super Bowl contenders trying to fix the flaws they found in January. It’s just not the timeline we inhabit.
Credit to the Bucs for hitting their stride when they needed it most, and for bringing back so many key players from their title run. Their front office has done a great job keeping that core together while adding possible upgrades. But at the end of the day the team they’ve held together finished the season at 11-5 with coin-flip wins against the 4-12 Falcons, the 6-10 Giants, and 7-9 Chargers.
Compare that to the Saints, who built a team around Brees that won the NFC South an unprecedented four consecutive seasons from 2017 to 2020. That roster’s top-end talent (which has gone 8-1 without Brees the last two years) remains intact, but their depth is facing legitimate scrutiny after so many contributors were lost against an equally-unprecedented depressed salary cap. Enough changes have taken place around the division to make it anyone’s game, no matter who eventually won their championship rings.
We’ll see how it shakes out in the fall. Maybe Jameis Winston is able to make the throws Brees couldn’t to keep the Saints in contention, while cutting down on the turnovers that got him punted out of Tampa Bay. Maybe the Panthers’ new quarterback and improved supporting cast make some noise, while the Falcons go all-in on an offense seeking to make the most of Matt Ryan’s golden years.
So it makes sense, on the surface, for Tampa Bay to be getting so much attention. With so much continuity in place and fresh memories from their last — surprisingly dominant — win, they’re going to get their flowers. But while the Bucs are relishing their time on top of the mountain, they may need even more luck than they enjoyed last year to remain kings of the hill.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
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