The Los Angeles Dodgers meet the San Francisco Giants for the second of their best-of-5 National League Division Series at Oracle Park Saturday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.
San Francisco handled business in Game 1 with a 4-0 victory. The Giants jumped out to an early lead thanks to a 2-run blast by Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford and Kris Bryant each chipped in solo home runs. San Francisco starting RHP Logan Webb had 7 2/3 IP with 5 H, 10 K and 0 BB.
Series: Giants lead 1-0.
LHP Julio Urias is on the mound for L.A. Urias was 20-3 with a 2.96 ERA (185 2/3 IP, 61 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 over 32 regular-season starts.
- Second-half splits: 9-0 with a 2.04 ERA (79 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 0.95 WHIP and 5.1 K/BB over 14 starts.
- Urias was 2-1 in five regular-season starts against San Francisco with a 3.38 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.16 WHIP and 11.0 K/BB.
- vs. Giants on the current roster (190 PA): 2.89 FIP with a .264 batting average (BA), .306 wOBA, .377 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.8 K% and 85.5 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Kevin Gausman takes the hill for the Giants. Gausman was 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA (192 IP, 60 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 33 regular-season starts.
- Second-half splits: 5-3 with a 4.42 ERA (77 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.37 WHIP and 4.7 K/9 over 15 starts.
- Gausman was 1-1 against L.A. in three starts this year with a 3.21 ERA (14 IP, 5 ER), 1.14 WHIP and 2.0 K/BB.
- vs. Dodgers on the current roster (204 PA): 4.61 FIP with a .268 BA, .336 wOBA, .456 xSLG, 19.6 K% and 89.1 mph EV.
Dodgers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Dodgers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Giants +100 (bet $103 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+140) | Giants +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Giants 4, Dodgers 3
Money line (ML)
How can we not take the best team in baseball at home at even money? I’ve lost too much money this season not taking the GIANTS (+100) seriously.
San Francisco has the best bullpen ERA in the majors and Gausman is the ace of that staff. The Giants’ lineup is deeper and better than the Dodgers’ this season: San Francisco has a better BA, WAR, wRC+, and wOBA than L.A.
There might be some “gambler’s fallacy” skewing the pricing in San Francisco’s favor. What I mean by that is the one-way betting action on L.A. is mostly based on the market not believing the world champion Dodgers will be eliminated in the first round – and maybe they won’t.
However, I’m cool with fading the market’s Dodgers bullishness and throw 1 unit on the GIANTS (+100) to take a 2-0 series lead heading back to L.A.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Giants +1.5 (-175) because betting San Francisco’s run line has been easy money this season. The Giants are 45-13 ATS as an underdog so I’d entertain betting their run line. But, I’d rather save my money for the Under.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-122) for a half unit as more of a fade on the market.
Nearly 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, but the Under is pricier. That tells me either the House is taking “sharp” money on the Under or is enticing more pro-Over money.
Urias is the most underrated pitcher on L.A.’s staff. No one has mentioned Urias in the NL Cy Young race. All this guy has done is lead the majors in wins and have a sub-3.00 ERA. Plus Urias has been lights out at Oracle Park this season.
Both teams play more to the Under in their respective location-based O/U trends and the Under has cashed in four of the past five Dodgers-Giants meetings.
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