The Milwaukee Brewers host the Atlanta Braves Saturday for Game 2 in the best-of-five National League Division Series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee won Game 1 thanks to 1B Rowdy Tellez’s 2-run homer in the bottom of the seventh inning.
Braves OF Joc Pederson smashed a pinch-hit, solo shot in the top of the eighth, but Brewers closing LHP Josh Hader shut the lid on the series opener.
LHP Max Fried gets the start for the Braves. Fried was 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA (165 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 over 28 regular-season starts.
- Second-half splits: 8-2 with a 1.74 ERA (93 IP, 18 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 5.4 K/BB in 14 starts.
- Road splits: 7-4 with a 3.14 ERA (83 IP, 29 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB in 14 starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .296 batting average (BA), .372 wOBA, .431 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 18.2 K% and 95.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 33 plate appearances (PA).
RHP Brandon Woodruff is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Woodruff was 9-10 with a 2.56 ERA (179 1/3 IP, 51 ER), 0.97 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 across 30 regular-season starts.
- Second-half splits: 2-6 with a 3.41 ERA (66 IP, 25 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB in 12 starts.
- Woodruff lost at Atlanta 8-1 July 31 with a stat line of 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 6 K.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 5.06 FIP with a .269 BA, .333 wOBA, .503 xSLG, 23.6 K% and 84.2 mph EV in 72 PA.
Braves at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:17 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Braves +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Brewers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Braves +1.5 (-205) | Brewers -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Brewers 4, Braves 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-125) for a half unit because the Under is the wiser wager.
Also, wait closer to the first pitch and we should get a better price on Milwaukee’s money line since around 70% of the cash at the time of publishing is on Atlanta, according to Pregame.com.
The bottom line here is postseason baseball is about pitching and Woodruff is too good of a starter to pass up on the Brewers as a slight favorite.
Woodruff grades in the 88th percentile of the MLB in chase rate and Atlanta’s lineup has the fourth-highest chase rate this month.
Furthermore, the Brewers’ batters rank at the bottom of the league in batting average, wRC+ and wOBA vs left-handed pitching.
But that’s a little misleading and more or less corresponds with their .279 BAbip that ranks 25th. In fact, Milwaukee’s lineup has the seventh-best hard-hit rate and sixth-best BB/K against lefties.
TAKE the BREWERS (-125) to win Game 2 but save some money for the Under.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Atlanta has been a lot more profitable in this spot than Milwaukee. The Braves are 25-10 ATS as road underdogs and the Brew Crew are 30-43 ATS as home favorites this year.
On top of that, Milwaukee’s lineup is only giving Woodruff 3.8 runs per game worth of support and Atlanta’s lineup is very good against right-handed pitching. The Braves have the eighth-ranked hard-hit rate and wOBA and 11th-ranked wRC+ vs. righties.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 7.5 (-125) is the best play. Fried has been one of the best starting pitchers in the league following the All-Star Game and this is the biggest game of Woodruff’s career.
I expect both starters to give their ball club a quality outing. Plus, there are several Under-friendly trends such as Atlanta’s 13-22 O/U record as a road underdogs, the Under cashing in Milwaukee’s past five playoff games and in Fried’s last seven starts as a road underdog.
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