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The LA Dodgers and New York Mets meet in Game 5 of the best-of-7 NLCS Friday. First pitch from Citi Field is slated for 5:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
NLCS: LA leads 3-1; LA won regular-season series 4-2
The Dodgers hoisted crooked numbers in 4 innings and won Thursday’s Game 4 by a score of 10-2. Across 10 combined games this season, LA has outscored New York 66-29.
The Mets outhit LA 12-10 Thursday but went 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position. New York also filed just 1 extra-base hit — a 1st-inning Mark Vientos HR — and has collected just 5 extra-base knocks in the series.
Dodgers at Mets projected starters
RHP Jack Flaherty vs. LHP David Peterson
Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 regular-season starts. He logged a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 162 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 9-0 home victory vs. Mets Sunday in Game 1
- Career vs. Mets (regular season): 0-0, 1 road start (June 13, 2019), 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-4 win in 10 innings with St. Louis Cardinals
- Owns 3.38 postseason ERA across 37 1/3 career playoff innings
Peterson (10-3, 2.90 ERA) registered 21 starts in the regular season. He authored a 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across 121 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 2 1/3 relief IP, 2 ER (3 R), 4 H, 1 BB, 2 K in Sunday’s loss
- Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 1-0, 5.74 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.53 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 4 appearances (3 starts)
- Has registered 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 postseason IP in his career (2.08 ERA in 8 2/3 this October)
- Friday’s start would mark the 1st of his career in postseason (previous October innings all in relief)
Dodgers at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+125) | Mets +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Dodgers at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Dodgers 5, Mets 3
Moneyline
LA’s 6.60 runs per game against the Mets (regular season plus playoffs) is intriguing, and the return on the run line is high enough to take a crack at a Dodgers RL play.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Dodgers looked dialed in on Peterson when he tossed 2 1/3 innings in Game 1 of this series. LA filed 4 line drives, 4 hits and a walk in plating 3 runs (2 ER) against him. The Dodgers logged the league’s best OPS against left-handers (.795) in the regular season, and they’re a club that has had its offense in high gear since mid-September (7.09 RPG, .855 OPS since Sept. 15).
New York pitching had been so good for long stretches this year, but the Mets don’t have their best foot forward in this one. It’s baseball, and they can certainly pull off the upset and force a return trip to California. Or a taut 1-run game could develop. But the risk-reward here is worth the solid return on a borderline-great club playing well of late.
BACK THE DODGERS -1.5 (+125).
Over/Under
All 4 games of this series have hit the Over, and the Over is 8-2 across 10 LA-New York games this season.
A sunny day with the early start (potential shadows and batter’s-eye difficulties) and a likely inward breeze are factors that work against run scoring. But peg Peterson’s good numbers as being not supported by skill-based analytics. And throw in a pair of bullpens not fully available for late-inning work.
TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-105).
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