NFL.com ‘Game Theory’ model forecasts chances of Dolphins win Week 16

The NFL.com’s ‘Game Theory’ model forecasts what Miami’s odds are of a win against the Bengals in Week 16.

The Miami Dolphins are entering Week 16 with a slew of possibilities ahead of them. Considering the team is going to be facing the New England Patriots in Foxboro next week, Miami is most likely looking at their final potential win of 2019 this Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals. Depending on how well Miami plays, the Dolphins could take a win and impact their NFL Draft order positioning — not that anyone in the locker room cares in the here and now.

What are the odds Miami finishes the home schedule with a win? That depends on who you ask. If you were to ask NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund, whose “Game Theory” provides predictive modeling provides score projections and win probabilities for every game in the NFL, the Dolphins are going to be in for a close contest against the Bengals.

“Game Theory” this week forecasts the Dolphins as favorites and lists them as owning a 52% chance of bringing home a win. The projected final score from Frelund’s model? 24-23, Dolphins. There are some interesting dynamics at play that keep this game close and, in the opinion of some, may actually give the Bengals the upper hand. The loss of LB Raekwon McMillan is an obvious one, as Bengals RB Joe Mixon has been one of the hottest running backs in football over the last two months. Him getting an opportunity to challenge Miami without McMillan is going to help the Bengals’ point totals surge.

So, too, is the Bengals’ reinsertion of Andy Dalton into the starting lineup. Dalton, for all his flaws, is an experienced quarterback who should be able to attack Miami’s barren secondary. Will it be enough for a win?

We’ll know soon enough. But expect a close call on Sunday against the lowly Bengals either way.

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