NFL.com analyst and former NFL running back Maurice Jones-Drew released his latest running back rankings for the upcoming draft and, much to the surprise of many, listed five backs ahead of former Badger Jonathan Taylor.
The rankings divide the top 30 prospects at the position into three groups: “day one starters,” “system players” and “guys who need time to develop.”
His top six goes as follows: Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins, Florida State’s Cam Akers, Utah’s Zach Moss and, all the way down at No. 6 rounding out the “day one starter” category, Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor.
Experts agree that there is an argument for selecting Swift or Dobbins ahead of Taylor due to their lower college usage and pass-catching prowess, depending what fits better with the team’s offensive philosophy.
What is outlandish and goes completely against the grain of what every draft expert has said thus far, though, is liking Edwards-Helaire, Akers and Moss all over Taylor.
I like Edwards-Helaire and his Darren Sproles-like versatility and quickness at five-foot-seven, and I think that Akers and Moss are solid prospects. But ranking Taylor below those three solely due to his college workload, one which did not cause him any injuries during his three years, is a take that will not hold up well in the long run.
Here are the four backs’ college statistics, and keep in mind Akers and Moss put up these numbers in the ACC and Pac-12 respectively, conferences with defenses not close to the level of those in the Big Ten.
Cam Akers: 586 carries, 2875 yards, 4.9 yards-per-carry and 27 touchdowns on the ground in addition to 69 receptions, 486 yards and seven touchdowns through the air in three years.
Zach Moss: 712 carries, 4067 yards, 5.7 yards-per-carry and 38 touchdowns on the ground as well as 66 receptions, 685 yards and three touchdowns through the air in four years.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 370 carries, 2103 yards, 5.7 yards-per-carry and 23 touchdowns on the ground in addition to 69 receptions, 595 yards and one touchdown through the air in three years.
Jonathan Taylor: 926 carries, 6174 yards, 6.7 yards-per-carry and 50 touchdowns on the ground as well as 42 receptions (26 from this past season), 407 yards and five touchdowns through the air in three years.
The numbers aren’t even close.
Here’s what Jones-Drew wrote when talking about Taylor in his rankings article.
“Taylor reminds me of Christian McCaffrey when he came out of college in the sense that the 5-10, 226-pound Badger has so many miles on his tires after recording 926 carries for 6,174 yards in three years at Wisconsin,” Jones-Drew wrote. “This was my concern with McCaffrey, but the Carolina Panthers have used him in a way where he doesn’t take as many hits. Unfortunately, Taylor’s size and downhill running style will make him more susceptible to hits at the next level.”
So, throwing his college production, speed, vision and advanced skill set out of the window, Jones-Drew compared Taylor to McCaffrey only in terms of how many times he touched the ball in college. It’s a necessary point to make, but by no means should it be the singular reason he isn’t ranked No. 1 or No. 2 on the running back board.
The McCaffrey pick also has turned out pretty well for the Panthers so far.
Fit and system will obviously play a role in the success of the top running backs taken later this month, as each back’s success will be greatly influenced by the talent of the line in front of them, how their coaches choose to utilize their skill sets and whether the team’s quarterback is able to air it out and take pressure off of the ground game.
In the end, though, it will be extremely surprising if Akers, Moss or Edwards-Helaire have better professional careers than the Badger legend.