It’s that time of year again: The NFL’s supposed “free agent frenzy,” when teams across the league overpay for players who couldn’t earn second contracts with the teams that drafted them.
Wooo. Exciting.
Of course, the smarter franchises will sit out the early period, letting other teams sway the bigger names with laughably big contracts. Successful teams like the Patriots and Ravens will bide their time and wait for bargains to emerge. It happens every year and 2020 will be no different.
So let’s take a peek into the near future and figure out which players will be overpaid in free agency this offseason. I’ve also suggested one cheaper alternative for teams insistent on signing a player at that particular position.
1. Anthony Harris, FS Vikings
Whenever Harris signs, he should give at least 10% of his signing bonus to Pro Football Focus, which has graded the 28-year-old as the best safety in football over the past two seasons and seem to be driving the hype surrounding him. I watched a few of Harris’ games on tape and didn’t see it. So I watched a few more and … still nothing. Don’t get me wrong, Harris is a solid centerfield safety, but outside of a few acrobatic interceptions, he doesn’t spend much time around the ball. His athleticism is his best feature but he lacks the instincts of other top-tier safeties like Earl Thomas or Tyrann Mathieu, which is why he doesn’t rack up a lot of tackles and rarely makes plays outside of the deep middle. I don’t think he impacts a game all that much, but he’ll be paid like a player who does — Over The Cap has him projected to make $14 million a year.
Cheaper alternative: Tre Boston, FS Panthers
Harris has better ball skills, but Boston is a more active player who also does a decent job of playing the centerfield role. Neither is going to transform a secondary but they’re both reliable. The big difference: Boston isn’t going to cost a team any more than $8 million per season. And even that projection might be on the high side.
2. Jadeveon Clowney, DE Seahawks
Clowney is in a weird spot where he’s underrated by most NFL fans but he’s also probably going to be overpaid this offseason. He’s a great edge defender who, every once in awhile, turns in a dominant performance that reminds everyone that he’s a monster. We just don’t see it nearly enough, mostly due to the fact that he’s still overly reliant on his immense physical talent to beat blockers. Clowney is just talented and productive enough to demand record-breaking money but not good enough to actually be worth such a deal. Some team is going to give the 2014 first-overall pick a nine-figure deal. It’s unlikely that he’ll see the end of it.
Cheaper alternative: Robert Quinn (2019 team: Cowboys)
It feels like Quinn has been in the league forever, but he’s only 29 and is coming off an 11.5-sack season. He’s also led the NFL in ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate metric two seasons running. You’d think a player like that would have some huge offers coming his way, but a team should be able to land the veteran pass rusher for a deal similar to the one Justin Houston got in Indianapolis last offseason.
3. Robby Anderson, WR Jets
Every offense could use a player like Anderson. He’s one of the fastest receivers in the league and does a good job of tracking the ball in the air. Any team lacking a field-stretching pass-catcher will give him a look, and it won’t be surprising if the bidding leads to Anderson landing a deal worth around $12 million a season. That’s a bit much for a guy who runs a limited route tree and will have trouble consistently earning targets without extra schematic help. Anderson is a good No. 2 option but not much more.
Cheaper alternative: Breshad Perriman (2019 team: Buccaneers)
He’s been typecast as a deep threat since moving on from Baltimore, but his brief stint as the Buccaneers’ WR1 late last season showed he has a little more to his game. And, unlike Anderson, Perriman won’t break eight figures in annual salary.
4. Jack Conklin, RT Titans
There is a Jack Conklin in every free agency class: A highly-drafted player who was just solid enough to avoid the dreaded “bust” label but not nearly good enough to convince the team that drafted him to cough up a big second contract. A team will let you know how they feel about a player with their actions. The Titans being cool with Conklin hitting the open market should be a red flag. As should the coaching staff’s insistence on providing Conklin with extra help in pass protection — a thing that goes back to previous Tennessee staffs. Whichever team ends up with the 25-year-old right tackle will be paying a premium for good run blocking and mediocre pass blocking.
Cheaper alternative: Demar Dotson, RT Buccaneers
Nobody is going to get excited about signing Dotson, be he’s put together consecutive seasons of solid production. He’s not going to give a team the kind of run blocking Conklin will, but he’s a more consistent pass protector at a third of the price.
5. Austin Hooper, TE Falcons
Look at Hooper’s production (1,447 yards and 10 touchdowns since 2018) and resume (two Pro Bowl nods before his 26th birthday) and you might think he’s on the cusp of superstardom. But he doesn’t really stand out when you watch him on tape. He’s an OK route-runner but not a monster at the catch point like some of the other stud tight ends we’ve seen in recent history. The numbers back this up, too. According to Pro Football Focus, over 75% of Hooper’s production came against zone coverage, the highest mark in the league. And he hasn’t been particularly good at beating man coverage. A team will likely have to give up Gronk money to land Hooper, and he’s not that kind of player.
Cheaper alternative: Eric Ebron, TE Colts
Hooper is a far better blocker than Ebron, but it’s not exactly a strength. In other words, you’re not signing Hooper for his blocking. So if a team is looking for a receiving threat at the tight end position, Ebron might be a better option who will cost a lot less.
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