How many games will the Green Bay Packers win in the 2020 NFL season? We look at BetMGM‘s projected win total and the Over/Under odds, while looking back at the 2019 season and key offseason roster changes.
Packers’ 2019 season
Record: 13-3 (1st in the NFC North)
Against the Spread Record: 10-6
Playoffs: Clinched a first-round bye and entered the postseason as the 2-seed but lost at the 1-seed San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Conference Championship.
Packers’ 2020 offseason changes
Head coach Matt LaFleur enters his second season with the Packers, and after trading up in the first round to select QB Jordan Love it appears Green Bay is shifting into a new era.
Most NFL experts were stunned at the Packers’ 2020 NFL Draft strategy, deciding not to take a wide receiver in a deep receiver draft, and selecting two-down RB A.J. Dillon in the second round. When you add in the Packers’ three offensive linemen in the sixth round, it would appear Green Bay is transitioning to a run-first offense.
Green Bay lost more than it gained during free agency. The offense lost nine-year starter RT Bryan Bulaga, TE Jimmy Graham and WR Geronimo Allison. The defense saw linebackers Kyler Fackrell and Blake Martinez (Packers’ leading tackler in 2019) both land with the New York Giants. Packers’ notable new hires include WR Devin Funchess and LB Christian Kirksey.
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Packers’ 2020 opponents
| OPPONENT | LOCATION |
| Chicago Bears | Home |
| Minnesota Vikings | Home |
| Detroit Lions | Home |
| Atlanta Falcons | Home |
| Carolina Panthers | Home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Home |
| Tennessee Titans | Home |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Home |
| Bears | Away |
| Vikings | Away |
| Lions | Away |
| Houston Texans | Away |
| Indianapolis Colts | Away |
| New Orleans Saints | Away |
| San Francisco 49ers | Away |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Away |
Packers’ 2020 win total: Best bet
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Tuesday, May 5 at 3 p.m. ET.
Projected wins: 9 / OVER: EVEN / UNDER: -120
Because the NFL injects parity into its league, the first metric I look at when betting a team’s regular-season wins is their record in one-score games. Green Bay’s 8-1 record in such games in 2019 should regress in 2020.
Also, the Packers mopped up the NFC North going 6-0 in division games in 2019 and that will not continue this season. Furthermore, Green Bay played the 17th toughest schedule (according to FootballOutsiders.com) and their 2020 slate should be much harder.
To punctuate the handicap, the 2019 Green Bay Packers were the most fraudulent 13-3 team in NFL history. They had a minus-0.3 yard per play differential and aside from their two wins over the Vikings, the only winning team the Packers beat in the 2019 regular season was a Kansas City Chiefs team without QB Patrick Mahomes in Week 8.
BET UNDER 9 (-120) WINS.
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