It’s playoff season and we’re awaiting thinning the Super Bowl herd by six teams over the three-day postseason weekend. For our prop betting purposes, we choosing four of the most dominant, critical players in their respective games and, in the spirit of the weekend, pick one wild card. Below, we look at 5 NFL player prop bets for Wild Card Weekend, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Wild Card prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 70.5 receiving yards (-111)
In four games as a member of the Bills, the only game that Diggs didn’t top this number was in the Calcutta Clipper Dec. 6 when the Patriots threw only three times. Even in that winter monsoon, Diggs caught four passes for 51 yards. In the three games not in hurricane conditions? Diggs has topped the number he needs to hit Saturday by a lot – 322 yards with a low-water mark of 85. Given the strength of the Patriots run defense against the pedestrian Bills run offense, if Buffalo is to advance, Josh Allen needs to be throwing. When that happens, it’s all Diggs all the time.
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San Francisco 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell OVER 19.5 rushing attempts (-103)
In San Francisco’s run to the playoffs, no running back has been used more than Mitchell. In his last five games, he has 118 carries with a low of 21. The Cowboys defense is adept at getting after the quarterback, but what keeps a pass rush honest is pounding them in the run game. Dallas allowed 4.5 yards a carry to opposing run games. That is grossly high for a team designed to run 30 times a game. The only way Mitchell shouldn’t hit this number is if Dallas gets ahead by 17 points in the second half, and the 49ers are forced to throw on every down to stay alive. I think San Fran has a good chance of winning this game outright. All they have do is keep it close, and Mitchell will get 20 carries.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady OVER 2.5 touchdown passes (+161)
The clear expectation is that Brady won’t throw three touchdowns (the Under is -213). But there are some bets you have to jump when they present themselves. Brady threw three or more touchdowns in eight of 17 games. One of them he didn’t was against the Eagles in Philly. He threw two, but in that game, Leonard Fournette had two touchdown runs (of 1 and 2 yards). Fournette won’t be sniping TDs from Brady in this one. It’s a sweet return on investment, and you have to ask yourself one key question – do you want to bet against Brady in the postseason?
Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill UNDER 69.5 receiving yards (-114)
There are a handful of players I rarely bet against hitting an Over on a yardage number. That list isn’t long and tends to include the law firm of Brady, Henry and Kupp. Hill is an associate in that firm. I feel confident taking the Over every time he steps on the field because, if the number is under 80, he’s capable of hitting that point with one catch. However, for the last month, the Chiefs have been forced to play postseason football trying to chase down the No. 1 seed. One of those games was against Pittsburgh – a 36-10 blowout win in Week 16. In that game, Hill was only targeted twice because the Steelers committed to doubling him and taking him away. While expecting a repeat of that lack of attention from Patrick Mahomes, begrudgingly bite the bullet and pray he doesn’t have the 60-yard catch in the first quarter that has you putting an “L” in the ledger.
Los Angeles Rams RB Cam Akers UNDER 31.5 rushing yards (-114)
The Rams were ecstatic to get Akers back from a devastating Achilles’ injury, but in his first game after his return, he had five carries for three yards. He is on a pitch count, and there is a lot of evidence that a player coming off an Achilles’ tear is never the same post-injury. The fact he’s even on the field should get his agent fired. Sure, the Rams are in the playoffs and Akers was their primary guy before the injury. But, Sony Michel has averaged 22 carries a game over the last five, and the offense has adjusted to his style. Akers is a heartwarming story, but is likely only going to get a handful of carries in this one and actually shouldn’t be playing for the long-term health of his career. He will likely need six carries at a minimum to hit that number, and I just don’t see the sense in risking it.
Also see: All Wild Card odds and lines
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