The Super Bowl that many thought they were going to see has happened, as the pass-happy Kansas City Chiefs offense is countered by a San Francisco 49ers rush offense that has been nothing short of dominant in the postseason.
Here are seven yardage-related Super Bowl LIV prop bets we’re going to be all over:
Saint Patrick
The Over/Under on passing yards for Patrick Mahomes is 295½ (-125 over, 100 under), giving the impression that they want bettors to take the under. In his two postseason games, Mahomes has thrown 35 passes and completed 23 in both – throwing for 321 and 294 yards. It’s a big number to hit, but Mahomes won’t get conservative against an attacking defense that leaves cornerbacks on an island. Take the Over.
King James Version
If you combine both of his postseason games, Jimmy Garoppolo has had a number similar, albeit short, to his passing yardage Over/Under of 238½ (-112 for both the Over and Under). In two games, he has COMBINED to throw just 27 times for 208 yards in eight quarters.
The 49ers are going to try to do what got them to the Super Bowl and not re-invent the wheel in the biggest game. The only logical way Garoppolo hits the over is if the 49ers fall behind by double digits early and forced to throw. That hasn’t happened yet in the postseason; they will try to establish the run and keep it established. Take the Under.
King of the Hill
There is no more dangerous receiver in the league in terms of big plays as Tyreek Hill. Because of his big-play ability, he consistently gets a big number and this week in no exception at 74½ yards (-112 for both the Over and Under). But, the reality of his situation is that he hasn’t hit that number in his last seven games, posting weekly yardage totals of 0, 55, 62, 67, 41 and 67. The 49ers may try to let cornerback Richard Sherman go one-on-one with him, but more likely is rolling a safety his way and making Mahomes look to other receivers. Take the Under.
Curious George
Two things go against George Kittle’s Over/Under of 70½ yards (-112 on both sides). First is that the 49ers have found the secret to their success is eating up the clock with long drives featuring an onslaught of rushes instead of passes. Kittle has just four receptions for 35 yards in two postseason games. Second, if the Chiefs defense is going to pay special attention to any receiver on the 49ers, it will be Kittle who gets double-teams. Take the Under.
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Andy’s Travis
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has been up-and-down over the last month or so because teams that don’t double him get burned and teams that do have the ability to shut him down. He has an Over/Under for receiving yards of 76½ (-112 on both sides). The feeling is that the 49ers are going to pay special attention to the deep portion of the field to prevent the splash play that can turn the tide with one throw. As a result, Kelce is likely going to settle into soft spots of the intermediate zone and catch a handful of passes or more, which should allow him to hit the Over.
I’ll Buy a Vowel, Pat
49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk is the world’s worst “Wheel of Fortune” puzzle name, but has a very attainable receiving yardage over/under of 12½ (-112 on both). The problem is that Juszczyk has had a role in the postseason offense, but it has been as a blocker. He likely would have to catch at least two check-down passes to hit 13 receiving yards and he has topped that number just once in the last six games and has no receptions in four of the six. Take the Under.
Where There’s a Williams, There’s a Way
The Over/Under on Damien Williams’ rushing total is 49½ yards (-118 for the Over, -106 for the Under). It’s a solid number because in two postseason games, Williams has yardage totals of 47 and 45 yards. But, against the Titans, he rushed 17 times. San Francisco’s defense is going to key on the downfield passing game and won’t be stacking the box. If Kansas City gets a lead, the Chiefs will look to run the ball more. This is a very attainable number, especially if Williams can hit the 15-attempt mark. Take the Over.
Run, Raheem, Run
Against the Green Bay Packers, Raheem Mostert was almost unstoppable, rushing 29 times for 220 yards and four touchdowns. In the 49ers first playoff game against Minnesota, Tevin Coleman went over 100 yards. If San Francisco is going to have a chance of slowing Kansas City’s offense down, it will mean running the ball early and often. While Mostert’s straight Over/Under is just 60½ yards, there is an enhanced bet that pays out +450 if he tops 100½. That’s a nice return, especially with Coleman recovering from a significant shoulder injury that could greatly limit his playing time availability. Take the Over and hope for a big run or two to pad his stats.
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