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It’s Wild Card Weekend and we’re looking to pinpoint prop bets that make too much sense to avoid heading to the pay window.
We have the hottest touchdown scorer in the league getting too good a number to avoid, a pair of former teammates who aren’t going to blow past their Over/Under and 2 players who need to for their teams to survive and advance.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook’s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Wild Card Weekend player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL Wild Card Weekend prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:57 p.m. ET. All games ET.
San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle SCORES A TD (+130)
– Host Seahawks, Saturday 4:30 p.m. (FOX)
I was a little stunned when I saw this number because Kittle has quickly become QB Brock Purdy’s best friend, which is not unusual for a young QB and a tight end. In the last 4 games, Kittle has caught 18 passes for 265 yards and, most importantly to this bet, has led the NFL with 7 touchdowns.
It doesn’t matter where the Niners have played – he has 3 TDs in his last 2 road games and 4 in his last 2 at home. Do the Seahawks have the recipe to stop him? Included in the 4-game stretch was a meeting with Seattle in Week 15, when Kittle caught 4 passes for 93 yards and 2 TDs.
This should be even-money at best. Getting a 30 percent taste? Yes, please.
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Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins UNDER 279.5 passing yards (-115)
– Host Giants, Sunday 4:30 p.m. (FOX)
In 17 games this season, Cousins has topped this O/U number just 6 times. Granted, 1 of them was against the Giants (299 yards in Week 16), but he didn’t go Over until the final seconds of the game as the Vikings attempted a desperation 61-yard field goal that they hit.
There are a couple of problems with this number. In the 6 games Cousins has hit 280 passing yards or above, he has averaged 45 pass attempts and was sacked 20 times in the process. Pass-heavy like that is not a recipe for success in the regular season and much less in the playoffs. The Vikings don’t want to pass that many times. Unless the Giants stonewall RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota is going to try to play with balance.
On the flip side, the Giants want to give RB Saquon Barkley 25 carries, each of which takes 30-40 seconds off the game clock. Win or lose, all that is required is the Giants to have a couple of 7-minute drives and Cousins won’t have the time to top this number.
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Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard OVER 47.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Buccaneers, Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
I understand and respect loyalty, but I also understand production and Pollard is the No. 1 running back in Dallas. RB Ezekiel Elliott had 38 more carries this season than Pollard, but Pollard topped 1,000 yards – 1,007 to be exact –and Zeke didn’t, finishing with 876. Pollard averaged 5.2 yards a carry, as opposed to just 3.8 for Elliott.
If the Cowboys lose this game, heads are going to roll. That’s how owner/GM Jerry Jones rolls. If the Cowboys want to win, they need the running back that can gain more yardage and Pollard is averaging 1.4 yards more every time he runs than Elliott.
With the season on the line, the loyalty shown to Elliott is admirable, but out of place. Every game Pollard has had more than 11 carries (8 times), he has topped this number. The Cowboys need their playmakers to step up and Pollard is that guy in their backfield, not Elliott.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase OVER 77.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Ravens, Sunday 8:15 p.m. ET (NBC)
With the exception of the Buffalo game where the S Damar Hamlin tragedy stopped it, in his last 8 games, Chase’s reception totals per game have been 7, 7, 8, 7, 10, 8, 8. He has topped this yardage number in 6 of his last 7 full games, including 8 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown last week against the Ravens.
There is no way that the Bengals will use Chase as a decoy to open receivers and, with the weapons the Bengals have, the Ravens can’t double-cover him. I’ll take my chances with 7 receptions as an established minimum baseline to work from that he beats this number.
Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs UNDER 78.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Dolphins, Sunday 1 p.m. (CBS)
Over the last 2 months, opponents have made a point of bracketing Diggs on critical downs and forced QB Josh Allen to look elsewhere instead of relying on his superstar. The Dolphins offense is likely going to be a hot mess with 7th-round rookie Skylar Thompson being asked to pull off a miracle, but the Miami pass defense is legit, especially when it comes to Diggs.
In his last 5 games against the Dolphins, his yardage totals have been 76, 60, 40, 74 and 60. It hasn’t been due to lack of receptions – he has 28 in those 5 games. It’s a matter that he is the player the Dolphins coaching staff has committed to limiting. He averages 11 yards per reception. They take away the deep ball with safety help and make him earn everything he gets.
At this rate, he’ll have to catch 8 passes to beat this O/U. That’s asking a lot for a team that should be comfortably ahead and running the ball as often as practical.
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