We’re on to Week 4 in the NFL, with the New York Jets and Denver Broncos kicking off on Thursday. That means it’s time once again for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last week, Steven Ruiz went 7-9-0 (23-22-3 overall) and Charles Curtis went 10-6-0 (23-22-3 overall).
We now go to each of them for comments before their picks.
Charles: Look: this only happens like once a year when I somehow beat Steven. Expect a regression to the mean next week. But until then: WAHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Steven: We’re onto Week 4.
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
(NOTE: The Titans-Steelers and Vikings-Texans games were off the board as of publishing this post.)
Broncos at Jets (+1)
Charles: Jets
Do we have to? I mean, really. Don’t bet on this game, because it means you’ll actually have to watch it. But fine: if there’s a game the Jets can actually win, it’s one at home against the Broncos’ depleted defense and against Brett Rypien. For the record: I hate this pick.
Steven: Broncos
At the very least, the Broncos have looked like a competent team this season. We can not say that about the Jets. But as Charles advised, stay away from this line. The under is looking pretty tempting, though.
Colts at Bears (+2.5)
Charles: Colts
I thought about taking the Bears now that Nick Foles is in at quarterback, but then again: do we really believe in a team that’s beat the Lions, Giants and Falcons, mostly with Mitchell Trubisky at QB? Me neither.
Steven: Colts
This line is way too small. The Colts are a tier or two above the Bears, who really didn’t make much of an upgrade at QB by moving to Foles. Sure, he played well enough to lead the team to a W in Atlanta, but he got away with some brutal mistakes the Falcons defense couldn’t capitalize on.
Saints at Lions (+4)
Charles: Saints
Yes, I’m alarmed about Drew Brees. Yes, the Lions pulled out a nice win on the road against the Cardinals. But nope, Detroit isn’t covering in this one.
Steven: Saints
Brees is washed but the Lions defense should present him with a “get right” game. If New Orleans doesn’t cover here, it’s officially time to panic … and maybe think about starting Jameis.
Cardinals at Panthers (+3.5)
Charles: Panthers
This is a tough one for me, so I took the points, figuring the Arizona trip East and the fact that the Panthers played well last week will get this to within a field goal.
Steven: Cardinals
Kliff Kingsbury v. Phil Snow, the Panthers defensive coordinator, is a coaching mismatch. Kyler Murray will bounce back against a porous secondary and cover this one easily.
Jaguars at Bengals (-3)
Charles: Jaguars
I do love what I’ve seen out of Joe Burrow, but this feels like a game where James Robinson will run all over Cincy’s defense and Gardner Minshew will rebound.
Steven: Jaguars
That Bengals offensive line is a mess and the Jags offense shouldn’t have a problem moving the ball against a mediocre defense. I’ll take the points.
Browns at Cowboys (-4.5)
Charles: Browns
Dallas’s defense stinks. Bad. So asking them to cover this much against a Cleveland team that has put up points in the past two weeks seems tough. I do think Dak Prescott can throw for a bajillion yards again, but I’ll take the points here.
Steven: Cowboys
I’m still not convinced by this Browns team after two wins against bad teams. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are due for a comfortable win.
Seahawks at Dolphins (+6.5)
Charles: Dolphins
The Seahawks continue to pile on the offense. But defensively? They give up a ton of passing yardage. That’s what I see happening again: the Hawks go up 27-7 and win 27-21.
Steven: Dolphins
I’m with Charles here. The Seahawks are making an east coast trip and doing so against a team with a few extra days of rest. Seattle will win but it will be one of those weird games the Seahawks are destined to play.
Chargers at Buccaneers (-7)
Charles: Buccaneers
It’s a large spread, but the Bucs’ offense is clicking and the pass rush will keep Justin Herbert in check.
Steven: Buccaneers
Tom Brady looks comfortable and with those weapons, that’s bad news for a defense that is relying on a rookie quarterback to score points. Oh yeah, this Bucs defense is going to pressure the hell out of Herbert, who has a tendency to hold onto the ball a bit too long.
Ravens at Washington (+13.5)
Charles: Ravens
I thought Washington was a lock last week to cover as seven-point underdogs to the Browns. They did not. And this is setting up to be a spot where the Ravens want to prove last week’s dud against the Chiefs was just a minor hiccup.
Steven: Ravens
The Ravens could not have played worse on Monday night. They’re too well-coached for that to happen again. Baltimore is going to take its anger out on a bad Washington team.
Giants at Rams (-12.5)
Charles: Rams
L.A. will cover this by halftime.
Steven: Rams
What Charles said. You saw what Kyle Shanahan did against this defense with a banged-up offense? Sean McVay is going to put on a clinic.
Patriots at Chiefs (-7)
Charles: Patriots
Hmmm. Patrick Mahomes dismantled the Ravens’ D last week, and I think he and the Chiefs win this one. But by seven, with Bill Belichick scheming? It’s too large. Take the points.
Steven: Patriots
Nobody is going to stop this Chiefs offense, but Belichick has the dudes to at least slow it down. Cam Newton will have to play well but I think he’s got it in him after a bit of a stinker in Week 3.
Bills at Raiders (+3)
Charles: Bills
The Raiders’ secondary is banged up. Buffalo got the blueprint on stopping Darren Waller from the Pats, so I think it’s the Bills by four.
Steven: Bills
The Bills have the advantage in basically every facet of the game, and I’m including quarterback play in there. I’m as shocked as you.
Eagles at 49ers (-7)
Charles: 49ers
Until Carson Wentz starts looking like an actual NFL quarterback, how can you back Philly?
Steven: Eagles
I keep getting burned by picking the Eagles, but I’m doing it again. The defense will do a decent job of slowing down Nick Mullens and with all the injuries to the 49ers defense, things should be easier for Wentz.
Falcons at Packers (-7)
Charles: Packers
Green Bay hasn’t scored less than 37 points in each of its first three games this season. And while Matt Ryan will end up throwing for like 425 yards, he’ll still fall short. Packers by 10.
Steven: Packers
It’s still up in the air whether Julio Jones will play and that’s what this game comes down to for me. If he’s in the lineup, the Falcons offense will put up enough points to cover. If not, I don’t see Atlanta having a lot of success.
We occasionally recommend interesting products, services, and gaming opportunities. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. FTW operates independently, though, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.
[jwplayer Mnze8GRr-q2aasYxh]