It’s Week 14 of the NFL season, which kicks off on Thursday with Dallas Cowboys playing the Chicago Bears, so it’s time for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last week, Charles Curtis went 12-4 in Week 13 picks (95-93 overall) and Steven Ruiz went 8-8 (98-90 overall). We now go to each of them for comments before their picks.
Charles: Oh. Oh boy. OH BOY. HERE WE GO! THE LATE SEASON RUN HAS BEGUN! LET’S GOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!
Steven: Oh damn. Time to stop messing around. We need a big week and I like the spreads.
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
NOTE: The Lions and Vikings game was off the board as of Thursday morning.
Cowboys at Bears (+2.5)
Charles: Cowboys
Let’s see: the Bears have won three of their last four, with two wins over the Lions with Jeff Driskel and David Blough under center, and defeated the Giants. Even with “weird things happen on Thursday,” I’m pretty confident in Dallas winning this game by three.
Steven: Cowboys
I’ve lost a lot hypothetical money betting on the Cowboys this season, but this is a must-win for Dallas, which is clearly the better team. Mitch Trubisky played better on Thanksgiving but he won’t be afforded the same amount of time by the Cowboys’ pass rush.
Ravens at Bills (+5.5)
Charles: Ravens
This is a tougher spread than it looks. The Bills can be feisty and it’s cold in Buffalo in December. But I think the Ravens’ defense is up to the task of stopping Josh Allen.
Steven: Ravens
If any team is capable of slowing down this Ravens rushing attack, I think it’s the Bills. The problem: I don’t think any team is capable of slowing down this Ravens rushing attack.
Panthers at Falcons (-2.5)
Charles: Panthers
I can’t tell if this is a “WIN ONE FOR RIVERBOAT RON!” game but I don’t have confidence in backing the Falcons, even at home.
Steven: Falcons
A total shot in the dark. I have not idea what to expect from the Panthers after losing their coach midway through the week. But that can’t be good for game-planning.
Bengals at Browns (-8.5)
Charles: Bengals
Just like last week: I know the Bengals are terrible but I seriously don’t think I can be confident in the Browns and all those points.
Steven: Bengals
The Bengals defense has been sneaky good in recent weeks and should be able to keep this one close enough to cover. Also, Baker Mayfield’s hand isn’t 100%. Take the points.
Broncos at Texans (-7.5)
Charles: Broncos
Hey, Drew Lock looked decent! I’ll say Denver loses and covers here.
Steven: Texans
Drew Lock’s first road game? Yeah, we’ll see at least two turnovers from the rookie in Houston.
Colts at Buccaneers (-3.5)
Charles: Colts
What!? No way. Indy is still better than being this much of a road underdog, and the Bucs aren’t good enough to cover more than a field goal.
Steven: Buccaneers
I’m done with this Colts team. Especially with most of Jacoby Brissett’s top targets out with various injuries. The Bucs offense is rolling and I doubt Indy can keep up.
Dolphins at Jets (-5.5)
Charles: Dolphins
You know the drill. Don’t doubt the Fins. They’re playing better as of late, and the Jets just lost to the NFL’s last remaining winless team.
Steven: Dolphins
Never trusting an Adam Gase team after last week’s debacle in Cincinnati. The Dolphins look like a competent football team. We can’t say the same about the Jets.
49ers at Saints (-2.5)
Charles: Saints
A potential NFC Championship game preview! This is impossible to pick but I can see this one ending at like 27-24 for the home squad with a Wil Lutz kick winning it.
Steven: Saints
We’re going to find out a lot about both of these teams on Sunday. I really want to see how Drew Brees performs against a top defense. I think he’ll play well and lead New Orleans to a win.
Redskins at Packers (-12.5)
Charles: Packers
I know the Redskins have won the last two weeks, but the Packers aren’t the Lions and inconsistent Panthers.
Steven: Packers
Nearly went with Washington, but there’s no reason to overthink this with the Packers playing at a home.
Chargers at Jaguars (+2.5)
Charles: Jaguars
Showing up to the next @Jaguars game like pic.twitter.com/1OcPXJQLOl
— Johnny (@HomeMalone) December 3, 2019
Steven: Chargers
The Chargers are the unluckiest team in football. They have a positive point differential but are still somehow 8-4. A little regression to the mean will be enough for them to cover against Garnder Minshew, who struggled the last time we saw him start against a decent defense.
Chiefs at Patriots (-2.5)
Charles: Patriots
I honestly don’t know how they do it (15 passes to James White?) but the Pats will win this game at home.
Steven: Chiefs
The Patriots are done. Well, not DONE done, but they can no longer compete with the AFC’s best teams, as we’ve seen in games against Baltimore and Houston. Give me the points.
Steelers at Cardinals (+2.5)
Charles: Steelers
Am I really buying into the Duck Dynasty? You bet I am.
Steven: Cardinals
I am not buying into the Duck Dynasty. There has been a lot of money to made betting against mediocre quarterbacks this season.
Titans at Raiders (+2.5)
Charles: Titans
What the heck is this spread? Tennessee looks like a playoff team with Ryan Tannehill under center (file that under sentences I never thought I’d write) and the Raiders are in a bit of a spiral.
Steven: Titans
The Raiders have been great at home all season, but the Titans should be able to carve up that defense and last week’s loss in Kansas City may have buried Oakland for good.
Seahawks at Rams (+2.5)
Charles: Seahawks
I’m also not buying this one. The Seahawks are clearly the better team and probably deserve something more like minus-3.5 here.
Steven: Rams
This is probably a dumb pick, but Sean McVay seems to have Pete Carroll’s number and we know how well Aaron Donald plays against Russell Wilson. I’m calling an upset.
Giants at Eagles (-8.5)
Charles: Eagles
I’m writing this just as the Eli Manning news is breaking, so of course I’m going to bet against him. Remember this fact we learned earlier this year?
Incredible: @betonline_ag released the effect each starting QB has on the point spread (yes it's complicated; this is an average).
Aaron Rodgers is the highest, the line would drop 7.5 pts if his backup had to play.
Eli Manning?
…
The #NYGiants would GET a point if he sat. pic.twitter.com/JVjSYnNvVU
— Nick Veronica (@NickVeronica) September 3, 2019
Steven: Eagles
“Eli Manning is starting” is all I needed to hear.
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