Through the first seven weeks of the 2022 NFL season, there’s been a decent overall uptick in rushing frequency and productivity. In 2021, through the first seven weeks, teams ran the ball 5,599 times for 24,039 yards, 4.3 yards per carry, and 200 touchdowns. Through the first seven weeks of the 2022 season, teams have run the ball 5,700 times for 25,744 yards, 4.5 yards per carry, and 195 touchdowns.
But there’s a subset of this increase that makes a lot of sense, and it’s a fascinating switch that we may see more often from now on. In 2022, through the first seven weeks, teams ran the ball out of 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers) 2,412 times for 11,443 yards, 4.7 yards per carry, and 67 touchdowns. In 2022, teams have run the ball out of 11 personnel 2,658 times for 13,183 yards, 4.96 yards per carry, and 75 touchdowns.
When you go from 43% of all rushing attempts, 48% of all rushing yards and 34% of all rushing touchdowns, to 47% of all rushing attempts, 51% of all rushing yards, and 38% of all rushing touchdowns out of one personnel package from one season to the next, that’s a trend worth watching.
So far this season, the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles have been the kings of this concept in the headline categories. They’ve run the ball a league-high 130 times out of 11 personnel for a league-high 642 yards, and a league-high seven touchdowns. The Eagles also have the most explosive run plays (10 yards or more) with 12 for 186 yards and a touchdown.
The obvious answer to why teams are doing more of this? Throwing 11 personnel at a defense tends to invite light boxes, and that creates one necessary advantage for any NFL offense.
In the Eagles’ case, when you have an offensive line of their high quality, and you can force a defense to play either too aggressively or too cautiously when waiting for a pass play, things can really open up. This 35-yard Miles Sanders run in Week 4 against a Jaguars defense that had been excellent against the run to start the season is one such example.
The Eagles are also unafraid to run in REALLY obvious passing situations. This Jalen Hurts run against the Cowboys in Week 6 came on third-and-18 with 2:00 left in the second quarter. Hurts ran for 12 yards, but it set up a field goal that put Philadelphia up, 20-0.
“Yeah, we mesh it up,” Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen said the week after the Jaguars game. “So that started yesterday. Last night we got together for a while. Pass game guys going through their thing, Stout [offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland] is going through it, and then we come together and we marry everything up, and then that process goes through in the morning. We just finished that stuff up a little bit as we’re still going through it, and we’re just marrying things up. It’s a great process we’ve got going, one that I truly believe in, and it’s been working, and we’ve got to continue that.”
Marrying everything up is the key, and the Eagles aren’t the only team doing this with a high success rate. The Seahawks have run just 60 times out of 11 personnel, but they lead the league with 7.4 yards per carry when they do so. This approach was particularly problematic for the Detroit Lions in Week 4, when Seattle eked out a 48-45 “defense optional” win. Seattle had four explosive run plays out of 11 personnel, including runs of 26, 36, and 41 yards. When you can run a power pull out of 11 and just house one side of a defense as Seattle did on this 41-yard Rashaad Penny run, it’s kind of hard to deal with it.
The Raiders lead the league in Positive Play Rate (plays which result in a positive EPA) on runs out of 11 personnel at 64.2%; they’ve lapped the field in that regard, as the Falcons rank second at 55.8%. As was the case on this 43-yard run against the Broncos in Week 4, running out of 11 personnel has been a big part of why Jacobs has turn the league up in recent games.
So, how should defenses counter this new mini-revolution in the run game? There’s not an easy answer, because defenses that have loaded the box against 11 personnel this season have really paid for it. Against six or more defenders in the box, quarterbacks in 11 personnel have completed 65% of their passes for 6.97 yards per attempt, 177 touchdowns, and 88 interceptions. Against five or fewer defenders in the box, quarterbacks in 11 personnel this season have completed 61.8% of their passes for 6.94 yards per attempt, 29 touchdowns, and 41 interceptions.
This also solves part of the problem for quarterbacks over the last few seasons regarding the increase of two-high safety looks. If you can at least make a safety think about having to come down in obvious passing situations, you have created a moment of hesitation, and a moment of hesitation is a lifetime for any defender.
In this regard, NFL offensive coordinators have created a “lose-lose” situation for their brethren on the defensive side of the ball. You can either hang back, deal with the passing game in a much better way, and live with the explosive run plays that come out of that. Or, you can seize up and load the box, and have quarterbacks just eat your lunch.
As he prepares for Sunday’s game against the run-dominant New York Giants (who have run the ball 90 times out of 11 personnel this season for 476 yards, 5.3 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns), Seahawks defensive coordinator Clint Hurtt spoke about what he’s seen in the run game resurgence.
“It simplifies the game for the quarterback,” Hurtt said on Wednesday. “When you sit there and you are not committed to running the ball, if we know that we are playing a guy that wants to throw the ball 50 or 60 times a game, we can make it hard on them by just rolling coverages and defensive lineman. They know that they can pin their ears back and don’t have to respect the running game.
“If you know right now that you have to anchor in and you have to defend this so you don’t give up huge chunks of plays in that aspect, you make the defense have to play more honestly. That is, you are playing aggressive, but you have to understand what your run fits are and the disciplines that come with it. If you start everything off with that in the running game, there are so many other things that can open up to you in that aspect.”
In today’s NFL, most coaches will tell you that they’ll live with big plays in the run game to sell out against the pass. But this is why running out of passing personnel is one of the new positive trends in the league right now. Based on the complications it causes for defenses, and the overall efficiency we’ve already seen, we (and all defensive coordinators) should get used to it.
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions).