NFC playoff picture: Rams still in the hunt for No. 1 seed

The Rams can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Jets on Sunday.

The Los Angeles Rams took care of business to open Week 14, knocking off the New England Patriots on Thursday, 24-3. As a result, they were able to sit back and watch the rest of the NFL duke it out on Sunday afternoon and night, hoping to get some help with a couple of upsets over teams L.A. is jockeying for position with.

They didn’t get much assistance from the rest of the NFC, with the Saints being the only team to fall in truly surprising fashion; they lost to the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Packers, Seahawks, Bucs and Cardinals all won, with Green Bay overtaking the top spot in the conference.

Here’s a look at the current playoff picture in the NFC with all 16 teams having played their Week 14 game already. Each team’s Week 15 opponent is noted.

  1. Packers (10-3): vs. Panthers
  2. Saints (10-3): vs. Chiefs
  3. Rams (9-4): vs. Jets
  4. Washington (6-7): vs. Seahawks
  5. Seahawks (9-4): at Washington
  6. Buccaneers (8-5): at Falcons
  7. Cardinals (7-6): vs. Eagles
  8. Vikings (6-7): vs. Bears
  9. Bears (6-7): at Vikings

If the playoffs started today, the Rams would host the Bucs in the first round of the playoffs. The Packers would get a bye, the Saints would host the Cardinals and Washington would play the Seahawks at home.

Because the Cardinals are 7-6, the Rams haven’t yet clinched a playoff berth. Arizona can technically still overtake L.A. for a playoff spot and keep the Rams out of the playoffs, but that would take a minor miracle to happen.

The Rams have a better chance to secure the No. 1 seed than they do to miss the playoffs. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Rams have a 5% chance to earn a first-round bye with the top seed in the NFC, which is coincidentally the same odds they have to win the Super Bowl.

It’s still unlikely the Rams will earn the No. 1 seed, considering the Packers and Saints are both 10-3. In order for that to happen, the Saints would need to finish 1-2, as would the Packers, and the Rams would have to win out. It’s unlikely, but their 5% chance is better than it was last week (2%).

Here are the Packers’, Saints’ and Rams’ remaining schedules:

  • Packers: vs. Panthers, vs. Titans, at Bears
  • Saints: vs. Chiefs, vs. Vikings, at Panthers
  • Rams: vs. Jets, at Seahawks, vs. Cardinals

The Rams’ playoff chances sit at better than 99% entering Week 15, and their odds to clinch the NFC West are 64% compared to 35% for the Seahawks. The division will likely come down to their Week 16 meeting in Seattle.

Next week against the Jets, the Rams can actually clinch a playoff berth by simply beating the winless New York team. That would move them to 10-4 and out of reach of the Cardinals, regardless of whether they win out due to tiebreakers.

If the Rams beat the Jets and Seattle beats Washington in Week 15, the Rams can still win the NFC West. However, in that scenario, they wouldn’t be able to secure the division title until Week 17.

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