Most of the NFC playoff field is set, with just the NFC South still to be determined in the final week of the season. The other six teams have all clinched playoff berths already, but there’s still seeding to be sorted out.
The final week of the season will determine whether the Vikings or Lions get a first-round bye, whether the Packers or Commanders are the No. 7 seed and where the Rams will be slotted among the top four seeds.
Heading into Week 18, the Rams are locked into either the No. 3 or 4 seed. They can’t get up to No. 2 where the Eagles are sitting, and they can’t fall below No. 4 because they’re a division champion.
As a result, the Rams know they will face one of these four teams in the wild-card round: Vikings, Lions, Packers or Commanders. It just depends on which teams win in Week 18 and where everyone finishes in the NFC playoff bracket.
If the Rams beat the Seahawks in Week 18, they’ll clinch the No. 3 seed and be guaranteed to play against either the Commanders or Packers in the wild-card round. If they lose to Seattle, the only way they can drop to the fourth seed is if the Buccaneers beat the Saints.
If the Rams and Buccaneers both lose, Los Angeles will still be the No. 3 seed.
Below is the simplest path to each potential matchup in the wild-card round.
(4) Rams vs. (5) Lions
- Rams loss
- Buccaneers win
- Lions loss
(4) Rams vs. (5) Vikings
- Rams loss
- Buccaneers win
- Vikings loss
(3) Rams vs. (6) Packers
- Rams win
- Packers win
- Commanders loss
(3) Rams vs. (6) Commanders
- Rams win
- Commanders win
The only thing the Rams can control is whether they get the No. 3 seed. They can clinch the third seed in the conference by beating the Seahawks in Week 18.
There’s no way for the Rams to guarantee themselves No. 4 seed, even if they rest their starters in the finale. That’s because if the Buccaneers also lose, it will keep Los Angeles at No. 3.
In other words, if the Rams prefer to face either the Vikings or Lions, they can’t lose on purpose and ensure themselves that they’ll get the No. 4 seed. The Buccaneers and Saints still have a say in that, even as unlikely as it is for Tampa Bay to lose to New Orleans.