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The New York Yankees (52-30) visit the Toronto Blue Jays (36-43) on Thursday as the AL East foes swing into a 4-game series. First pitch in the opener at Rogers Centre will be at 7:07 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 3-3
The Yankees are fresh off being swept by the New York Mets in a 2-game series at Citi Field. A top-level pitching staff has been torched by opposing batters and the club is 1-6 over its last 7 games. Over that stretch, New York owns a 7.55 ERA.
The Blue Jays have also struggled on the mound lately. Since June 17, Toronto is 1-7 with a 5.43 ERA.
Yankees at Blue Jays projected starters
LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Jose Berrios
Rodon (9-4, 3.86 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 88 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 8-1 loss vs. Atlanta Braves Friday
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-1, 3.29 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 27 H, 10 BB, 30 K in 5 starts
- Has allowed 13 runs on 18 hits in his last 8 2/3 IP
Berrios (6-6, 3.43 ERA) is lined up for his 17th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 in 97 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-3 loss at Cleveland Guardians Saturday
- Career vs. Yankees: 3-7, 5.21 ERA (67 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 70 H, 21 BB, 80 K in 12 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Blue Jays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:13 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Blue Jays +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Blue Jays 6, Yankees 4
Moneyline
The Blue Jays have been hurt by an 8-14 mark in 1-run games, a .260 batting average on balls in play against lefties, and a .267 BABIP when leading off innings. They do not figure as a great ballclub, but they are likely being overlooked by much of the betting public.
Look for Toronto to be an improving power team against fly-ball pitchers especially. Rodon is certainly that, and he’s struggling and being backed by a Yankee bullpen that cannot get out of its own way in recent weeks (4.54 relief ERA in June).
Like Rodon, Berrios is a fade candidate with his expected ERA figures in excess of his surface number. But he is pitching at home where he’s logged a 2.36 ERA this season.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a better price to leverage here: TAKE THE BLUE JAYS (+118).
Run line/Against the spread
A higher scoring and perhaps looser game is the prognosis here. Would want a better tag to back the Jays plus the cushion. PASS.
Over/Under
The Over is 4-1 across the last 5 series meetings. Both starting pitchers have benefited from favorable batting average on balls in play. Neither has been sharp of late and both make for some fade lean Thursday.
The Toronto bullpen figures as a bottom-3rd unit, and the New York pen has been awful over recent weeks.
With good weather in the Ontario forecast, the roof at Rogers Centre will likely be open. A brisk fly-ball-helping breeze is in the forecast, and the OVER 8.5 (-115) is a value play.
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