The New York Yankees (17-15) and Tampa Bay Rays (26-6) open a 3-game set Friday. First pitch from Tropicana Field is at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: 1st meeting; New York won 11 of 19 meetings in 2022
The Yankees picked up a 2nd straight win with a 4-3 10-inning win over the Cleveland Indians Wednesday. Those 2 wins against Cleveland came after a dreadful 4-game losing skid during which they were outscored 25-6. New York has the 6th-best team ERA (3.53) but its bats are ice cold, scoring the 7th-fewest runs in the majors (126).
The Rays still own the best record in baseball, sitting 4 games better than the Atlanta Braves. They’re fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates, where they outscored them 15-4. Tampa Bay has scored the most runs (210) and boasts the lowest ERA (2.87) in the majors this season.
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New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays projected starters
RHP Jhony Brito vs. RHP Yonny Chirinos
Brito (2-3, 5.56 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 22 2/3 IP.
- Started the year strong with only 1 run allowed in his first 10 innings but his ERA ballooned when he allowed 7 runs in 2/3 of an inning in his 3rd start against the Minnesota Twins on April 13
- Took the loss last time out despite allowing just 2 runs in 5 innings against the Texas Rangers Saturday
Chirinos (1-0, 0.64 ERA) makes his 1st start and 5th appearance. He has a 0.57 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 5.1 K/9 through 14 IP.
- Has operated in a relief role all season, going 4 2/3 innings and allowing 1 earned run in his longest appearance of the season on Saturday at the Chicago White Sox
- Has only allowed 6 hits and 1 earned run all season, with 2 of his 4 appearances coming against the Chicago White Sox
Yankees at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Rays -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-135) | Rays -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Yankees at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Yankees 3
Moneyline
The Yankees are struggling right now, falling to last in the AL East. Their usually high-powered lineup has been cold this season and now they go up against the best pitching staff in the majors.
I don’t see the Yankees putting up enough runs to win this one against the Rays, having scored 4 or fewer runs in each of their last 8 games. As much as I like the Rays (-185) to win this game, the moneyline isn’t rewarding enough to bet.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
The Rays have beaten their opponent by at least 2 runs 12 times in their last 16 wins, often blowing them out comfortably. They rarely play close games, winning by an average of 3.6 runs per game this season.
Getting them fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Priates at +110 to beat the Yankees by at least 2 runs is a great value. Pittsburgh was 20-9 before facing Tampa Bay.
BET RAYS -1.5 (+110).
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Over/Under
This isn’t exactly a pitcher’s duel in St. Pete and neither pitcher expected to go particularly deep into the game. However, Chirinos has been tough to hit in limited action this season and Brito showed signs of promise early in the season when he allowed just 1 run in his first 10 innings.
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100) Friday.
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