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The New York Yankees (55-38) and Tampa Bay Rays (45-46) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Tropicana Field is at 6:50 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 4-3
New York dropped Tuesday’s opener 5-3. The Yankees are 1-6 since July 2 and 3-11 since June 23.
With Tuesday’s triumph, Tampa Bay snapped a 3-game losing streak. Since June 13, the Rays are 6-2 at home.
Yankees at Rays projected starters
RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Zach Eflin
Stroman (7-4, 3.58 ERA) is making his 19th start. He has clocked a 1.29 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 100 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 8-4 home loss vs. Cincinnati Reds Thursday
- Owns 6.43 ERA over his last 4 starts
- Career vs. Rays: 6-8, 4.59 ERA (100 IP, 51 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 17 starts
- Per ESPN, has held currents Rays batters to aggregate .608 OPS
Eflin (5-5, 4.19 ERA) is lined up for his 17th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 92 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 5 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 10-8 win at Kansas City Royals Thursday
- Career vs. Yankees: 3-1, 1.54 ERA (35.0 IP, 6 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 6 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 10:39 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Rays -110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+155) | Rays +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
The mound matchup here makes for a lean toward the RAYS (-110), who are playing well at home. Stroman went into the last couple or few weeks as a definite fade candidate, and he has not disappointed bettors going that route. The veteran hurler had some overly favorable marginal rates and an expected ERA significantly higher than an artificially depressed surface ERA. In those last 4 starts producing a 6.43 ERA, he’s walked 4.7 batters per 9 while missing bats at a lowered rate.
Eflin, who owns a 2.43 ERA at home in 2024 and clocked a 3.30 ERA at Tropicana last year, has been touched up by a .333 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations. He went 6 scoreless frames in an April 20 game at Yankee Stadium.
Other systemic team analytics lean to the New York side, but the RAYS (-110) are worth a partial-unit play.
Run line/Against the spread
More juice here. And with the Over being a decent lean, there is no value in a Rays-plus-the-cushion play. AVOID.
Over/Under
Tuesday’s O/U was 8, and the 5-3 score pushed. But the total has gone Over in 13 of the Yankees’ last 18 games. The Over is 5-1-1 across the last 7 New York-Tampa games played at the Trop.
With Stroman being a solid fade and Eflin being a lukewarm play, BACK THE OVER 8 (-115) Wednesday.
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