The New York Yankees (33-31) and Philadelphia Phillies (31-31) close out an abbreviated two-game weekend series Sunday. The contest at Citizens Bank Park is slated for a 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Domingo German is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 60 2/3 IP over 11 starts.
German has worked around some home-run problems (1.8 per nine innings) in posting his 3.12 ERA. The 28-year-old has registered a fine 2.15 ERA over his last 5 starts and has allowed just 3 ER over his last 26 IP on the road.
RHP Aaron Nola is the projected starter for the Phillies. He is 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 in 75 1/3 IP over 13 starts.
Nola has enjoyed pitching at Citizens Bank Park where he owns a 3.03 ERA across 6 starts this season and a 2.85 ERA since 2019.
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Yankees at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:23 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Yankees 5, Phillies 4
Money line (ML)
The Yanks have scored just 3.94 runs per game, which ranks 25th in MLB, but they head into this contest having scored five or more runs in five straight games. They’ve clocked a .929 OPS over those five contests.
The Phillies are 5-2 on their current home stand and are 20-12 at Citizens Bank Park on the year.
Both clubs have disappointed offensively, but the Yankees have some growth potential baked into their analytics. Statcast quality-of-contact numbers say better things about the Yankee attack than does the team’s 3.94 RPG figure.
The Phillies have a right-leaning lineup card for this one, and that’s a boon for German, who has held righty bats to a mere .647 OPS this season.
BACK THE YANKEES (-105).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the juice-filled run line prop for this game.
Over/Under (O/U)
PEG THE OVER 8 (-115) with some value. There are some Over-shading analytics on the New York offense, German, and the Phillies pen. Plus, the game is complemented by the forecast of a batter’s breeze.
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