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The New York Yankees (52-29) and New York Mets (38-39) meet Wednesday as they cap off an abbreviated Subway Series. The opening pitch at Citi Field is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 1-0
The Yankees lost 9-7 in Tuesday’s series opener. Across its last 9 games, New York has faltered on the mound and at the plate and is just 2-7.
The Mets have been on a different trajectory of late. They are 10-2 since June 12. In Subway Series games at home, the New York NL club has won 5 of its last 6.
Yankees at Mets projected starters
RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Gil (9-2, 2.77 ERA) makes his 15th start. He owns a 1.08 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 in 81 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 17-5 loss vs. Baltimore Orioles Thursday
- Has never faced the Mets
- Has yielded a .927 OPS while posting an 8.25 ERA over his last 3 starts
Manaea (4-3, 4.16 ERA) is making his 15th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 71 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 5-3 loss at Texas Rangers last Wednesday
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-3, 4.46 ERA (34 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 29 H, 10 BB, 40 K in 6 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:43 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -142 (bet $142 to win $100) | Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Mets +1.5 (-132)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Yankees at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Yankees 3
Moneyline
The Mets have won 6 in a row at Citi Field.
As dominant as Gil has been through long stretches this season, the young righty may be dealing with some workload issues as times moving forward. He is simply not in good form heading into this contrast.
Manaea does not have good recent numbers, but his under-the-surface analytics tell a different story. Those key analytics also paint a brighter picture for the Mets bullpen, so from a pitching standpoint tab the home side as being undervalued in this spot.
BetMGM Sportsbook offers more leverage on the Mets side here: BACK THE METS (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
Look for better value on the ML. STEER CLEAR.
Over/Under
There are conflicting indicators here and almost no lean either way. But the Yanks have had enough struggles with left-handers, and 3 straight Manaea starts have cashed on the Under.
There is enough hidden value in the Mets pitching as to make a lower score just a sliver of a value.
CONSIDER A PARTIAL-UNIT PLAY ON THE UNDER 8.5 (-118).
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