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The New York Yankees (52-28) and New York Mets (37-39) play the 1st game of a 2-game Subway Series Tuesday. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; split 4 games last season
New York’s American League entry lost a weekend set to the Atlanta Braves 2 games to 1. The Yankees head across town having faltered in 6 of their last 8 games.
The Mets have been on a different trajectory of late. They are coming off taking 2 of 3 from the Chicago Cubs over a weekend set at Wrigley Field and are 9-2 since June 12.
Yankees at Mets projected starters
RHP Gerrit Cole vs. LHP David Peterson
Cole (0-0, 4.50 ERA) is tabbed for his 2nd start. He allowed 2 ER on 3 hits and 1 walk with 5 K’s in 4 IP in his season debut, a 7-6 home loss in 10 innings vs. the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday.
- Career vs. Mets: 2-2, 5.89 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.61 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 in 7 starts, including 0-0 with 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER) in 1 start last season
- Started season late after being shut down with elbow inflammation during spring training
- Logged a 2.63 ERA in 33 starts last season
Peterson (3-0, 3.97 ERA) is lined up for his 5th start. He’s logged a 1.41 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 in 22 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 14-2 win at Texas Rangers June 17
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 10.38 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 5 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 1 start and 1 relief appearance — last faced them in 2022
- Missed all of April and most of May after having offseason hip surgery
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -156 (bet $156 to win $100) | Mets +132 (bet $100 to win $132)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+106) | Mets +1.5 (-128)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Yankees at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
The METS (+132) are 4-1 over their last 5 home games against the Yankees. They’ve clocked a robust .888 OPS en route to scoring 6.55 runs per game since June 12.
With Cole making just his 2nd start off the IL and with the home nine having much the better bullpen of late, BACK THE METS (+132).
Run line/Against the spread
No value here: PASS.
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Over/Under
The Over has cashed in 6 of the last 8 Yanks-Mets games at Citi Field.
Tag Cole and the Yankee bullpen with some fade lean. Add some uncertainty for Peterson who is starting on long rest (career .784 OPS allowed on 6 or more days of rest).
The weather forecast calls for a warm night with a batter’s breeze.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (+100).
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