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The New York Yankees (28-15) and Minnesota Twins (24-17) battle Wednesday, as they continue a 3-game set in Minneapolis. First pitch at Target Field is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET (Prime Video). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 1-0
New York took Tuesday’s series opener 5-1. Since May 3, the Yankees are 9-2 with a plus-22 run differential.
The Twins won 12 in a row from April 22-May 4. They are 5-4 since, but Minnesota pitching has faltered a bit over that recent stretch. The Twins own a 4.72 ERA over those last 9 games.
Yankees at Twins projected starters
RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
Stroman (2-2, 3.80 ERA) is making his 9th start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 in 42 2/3 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 4-3 loss vs. Houston Astros Thursday
- Career vs. Twins: 1-4, 5.82 ERA (34 IP, 22 ER), 42 H, 8 BB, 22 K
Lopez (4-2, 3.89 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has authored a 0.98 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 44 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 10 K in 11-1 win vs. Seattle Mariners Thursday
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-1, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 2 BB, 11 K
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Yankees at Twins odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -104 (bet $104 to win $100) | Twins -112 (bet $100 to win $112)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+158) | Twins +1.5 (-192)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Yankees at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
Minnesota is 9-3 over its last 12 games at home.
The Yankees have had an easy strength of schedule when it comes to pitching faced thus far, so downgrade New York’s offensive numbers a tad.
Stroman has been issuing too many bases on balls and is the lesser side of this starter matchup. Over his last 4 starts, he has registered a 5.31 ERA while allowing a .967 OPS. And he’s backed by a Yankee bullpen that has shown some warts of late. That New York relief corps owns the league’s 2nd-best ERA (2.63), but that surface number does not hold up to scrutiny. Yankee relievers have been buoyed by a .243 batting average on balls in play, and their 3.6 BB/9 makes for too many base runners.
The Twins haven’t lost 2 in a row at home since April 8-9.
TAKE MINNESOTA (-112).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: Better relative value can be found in the less-juice-drowned ML prices.
Over/Under
Stroman and the Yankee pen play into an Over lean, and the Over has cashed in 10 of New York’s last 14 games at Target Field.
The Yanks’ offense is at its best against right-handers, and both lineups have solid match-up histories against the listed starters.
TAKE THE OVER 8 (-108).
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