The New York Yankees (53-48) start a three-game interleague series Friday with the Miami Marlins (44-58) at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won its previous three-game set at the Tampa Bay Rays but was clobbered Thursday in the series finale, 14-0, with starting RHP Gerrit Cole on the mound. The Yankees have won six of their last 10 games.
Miami split a two-game interleague series at the Baltimore Orioles after losing the second meeting by a score of 8-7 Wednesday. The loss snapped a three-game win streak for the Marlins who are just 4-6 in their last 10 games.
RHP Jameson Taillon is New York’s projected starter. Taillon is 6-4 with a 4.36 ERA (95 IP, 46 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 19 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 4-3, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K Saturday at the Boston Red Sox.
- 2021 road splits: 2-3 with a 6.08 ERA (37 IP, 25 ER), 1.43 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in eight starts.
RHP Zach Thompson makes his eighth start for the Marlins. Thompson is 2-3 with a 2.45 ERA (33 IP, 9 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in his rookie season.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-2, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 3 K July 23 vs. the San Diego Padres.
- 2021 home splits: 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA (16 IP, 4 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 20 K in three starts.
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Yankees at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:32 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Marlins +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+105) | Marlins +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Yankees 4, Marlins 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the YANKEES (-160) because they’ve acquired All-Star OF Joey Gallo and former All-Star 1B Anthony Rizzo. The duo adds much-needed power left-handed hitters into a predominant righty lineup.
I expect Gallo and Rizzo to make immediate contributions for New York since they are proven sluggers who’ll be motivated going from situations with no postseason aspirations to a team that still has playoff expectations.
Furthermore, the Yankees are getting backed by both the “pros” and “Joes” in this spot which has steamed them up from a -130 money line favorite on the opening number to the current price.
While I agree with the market move I’m leery of backing a popular Yankees side in their first game with new, high-profile, batters hence the “lean”.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Yankees -1.5 (+105) is too light of a payout considering New York is 4-8 ATS with a minus-2.3 run line margin in interleague games this season and 14-23 ATS as a road favorite.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-105) for a half unit even though New York’s offense should greatly benefit by adding some balance to their lineup at the trade deadline because these new pieces still need to get comfy in their new digs.
Also, Thompson has looked awesome at home thus far in his rookie season and Miami’s home ballpark is one of the most pitcher-friendly in the majors.
Lastly, there are a few trendy reasons why I “LEAN” to the UNDER (-105) such as Miami being 1-6 O/U in Thompson’s seven starts this year and 7-12-3 O/U this season as a home underdog while New York is 16-21 O/U as a road favorite.
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