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The New York Yankees (46-21) and Kansas City Royals (39-27) tangle Monday as they open a 3-game set in Missouri. The opening pitch at Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Yankees won 4-2 last year
The Yankees are coming off dropping 2 of 3 to the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. They went into that series on an 8-game win streak, so they are 9-2 over their last 11 games.
The Royals are 2-1 on a current home stand. They have cooled since a late-May win streak and are just 5-8 across their last 13 games.
Yankees at Royals projected starters
LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Seth Lugo
Rodon (8-2, 3.08 ERA) is making his 14th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 73 IP.
- Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 9-5 home victory vs. Minnesota Twins Wednesday
- Career vs. Royals: 3-6, 5.27 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 32 ER), 70 H, 20 BB, 55 K in 11 starts
- Owns a 6.82 ERA across 7 career starts at Kauffman Stadium (.917 OPS allowed)
Lugo (9-1, 2.13 ERA) is tabbed for his 14th start. He has a 1.02 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 84 1/3 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-5 loss at Cleveland Guardians Tuesday
- Career vs. Yankees: 4-1, 2.53 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 8 BB, 31 K in 2 starts and 10 relief appearances
- Has been aided by a .250 batting average on balls in play (.170 BABIP with runners in scoring position)
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Yankees at Royals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Royals +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Royals +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Yankees at Royals picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 6, Royals 4
Moneyline
New York is 10-4 over its last 14 games at K.C.
Kansas City figures as being several games too far out over its skis in being a dozen games over .500. Lugo is a pitcher who has benefited from generous rates around the margins, and he is backed by a less-than-stellar Royals bullpen.
There is also some fade to Rodon’s surface numbers, and the Yanks are coming off a Sunday-night game and travel west. So, both ends of this matchup can be dinged in certain categories. But peg the Yankees, a club that has won 5 in a row on the road, as worth a partial-unit play for the straight-up win
FanDuel Sportsbook offers a more attractive tag here: BACK NEW YORK (-126).
Run line/Against the spread
The Yankee’s offense travels. With robust road numbers coming from the bats, New York is 22-13 against the RL away from Yankee Stadium.
And the Over is a likable play. It’s the strongest play for this matchup, in fact. But the return on Yankees -1.5 (+125) is a tad light.
PASS.
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Over/Under
The Over has cashed in 9 of Kansas City’s last 10 home games. The Royals have banged out a .794 OPS at home for the season; since May 7, they have averaged 6.71 runs per game at Kauffman Stadium.
Both starting pitchers figure to be overrated by surface numbers not supported by underpinning talent indicators. And per ESPN, current K.C. batters have clocked a .980 OPS against Rodon.
The Royals bullpen has been torched for a 4.91 ERA since May 1. The Over is 6-3 across the last 9 series meetings and is the best option for this Monday lid-lifter at Kauffman Stadium.
BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-110).
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