New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (56-20) and Houston Astros (47-27) meet for a Thursday 6:10 p.m. ET game at Minute Maid Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

The Yankees and Astros played 4 games at Yankee Stadium last week. The top 2 clubs in the American League split that set, although Houston coughed up a couple of leads in the losses.

Astros pitching has caught fire of late. Despite a slew of recent games against both New York teams — with both owning top-10 OPS figures — Houston is 10-3 in its last 13 games with a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over that stretch.

Yankees at Astros projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Luis Garcia

Severino (4-2, 3.38 ERA) has registered a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 72 IP in 13 starts.

  • A 2.0 home-runs-per-9 rate has led to a 4.61 ERA on the road (versus a 2.62 mark at home).
  • Facing Houston for a second straight start. Allowed 3 R, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K in 6 IP in Sunday’s 4-2 loss at Yankee Stadium.

Garcia (5-5, 3.68 ERA) has logged a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 71 IP over 13 starts.

  • His last start was June 22. Had his regular start Tuesday pushed back, though not due to injury.
  • Owns a 5.18 ERA, 1.9 HR/9 at home.

Yankees at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 2:16 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees -125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros +102 (bet $102 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Yankees -1.5 (+133) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Yankees 4

Money line

While New York is 23-5 in its last 28 games, they have played just 9 of those away from home. Over those 9 games, Yankee pitching has scuffled (4.96). Severino has struggled in general across all his road efforts.

With the one-off nature of this contest (due to schedule irregularities with the late start to the season), New York has the odd in-and-out, same-day schedule before heading to Cincinnati.

Figure Houston as more of an even-money proposition. TAKE THE ASTROS (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread

Too. Much. Juice. Leverage is drowned out; PASS.

Over/Under

Both clubs own sets of Statcast quality-of-contact numbers that indicate better days ahead with the bats.

Both sides sport bullpen numbers tamped down by some favorable rates around the margins. Houston’s relief corps owns a .266 batting average on balls in play; New York’s has registered an even better (luckier) .257 BABIP.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-125).

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