The New York Yankees (46-42) go for a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros (54-36) as the first half of the season wraps up Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park (on TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Yankees lead 4-1
New York recorded back-to-back, 3-hit shutouts in the first two games of this series. RHP Gerrit Cole struck out 12 in Saturday’s complete-game 1-0 win a day after four hurlers combined to blank Houston 4-0.
RHP Jameson Taillon is Sunday’s projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 16 starts this season.
- Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 12-1 victory at Seattle Mariners Tuesday
- Career vs. Astros: 0-1, 2.25 ERA (8 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 1 start, a 3-1 home loss with Pittsburgh Pirates in 2016
LHP Framber Valdez is slated to start for Houston. He is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 8 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 R, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 6 K vs. visiting Oakland A’s Tuesday – Astros won 9-6
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 10-6 road loss in 2019
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Yankees at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Astros 5, Yankees 2
Money line (ML)
Back HOUSTON (-155) to WIN 1 UNIT. Since debuting in 2018, Valdez is 10-3 at home, including 2-0 in 4 starts this year and 3-1 in each of the previous two seasons.
The Astros usually win when Valdez is on the mound. They are 6-2 in his 8 starts this year and 7-4 in his last 11 starts overall.
Taillon might be on a 3-game win streak, but the Yankees are 7-9 in his 16 starts this year. Plus, he’s 1-3 on the road this season and was 1-2 away from home in 2020.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Bet HOUSTON -1.5 (+135) with a QUARTER-UNIT wager.
The Yankees are the second-worst ATS team in the majors, barely ahead of the Minnesota Twins (33-55).
ATS records: Yankees 34-54 | Astros 47-43
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 8.5 (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
The Yankees are the best Under team in the AL and the first two games of this series cashed UNDER tickets.
Don’t worry about the Astros being the fourth-best Over club in the majors. They’re 1-6 O/U in their last 7 games.
O/U records: Yankees 39-47-2 | Astros 51-37-2
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