The Detroit Tigers (19-31) host the New York Yankees (29-21) Friday in their first of a three-game set at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York beat the Toronto Blue Jays Thursday to prevent a three-game sweep, but the Yankees seven of their past 10 games, which includes a three-game sweep of the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox last week.
Detroit has lost five of its last six and two straight series following winning all three at the Seattle Mariners May 17-19 (5-5 in the last 10 games).
Season series: Yankees 3-0.
RHP Gerrit Cole makes his 11th start for the Yankees. Cole is 6-2 with a 1.81 ERA (64 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.80 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, in 7 IP with 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 7 K vs. White Sox Saturday.
- Career vs. Tigers: 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 12.0 K/9 over eight starts.
- vs. Tigers on the current roster: 96 at-bats with a .156/.221/.250 slash line, 46/8 K/BB, 3 HR and 6 RBIs.
RHP Casey Mize is the projected starter for the Tigers. Mize is 3-3 with a 3.42 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 over nine starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in 6 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Detroit’s 3-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals Sunday.
- Career vs. Yankees: No appearances.
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Yankees at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Tigers +220 (bet $100 to win $220)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -2.5 (+115) | Tigers +2.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Yankees 5, Tigers 0
Money line (ML)
PASS because this price is outrageous given the Yankees’ mediocre hitting through the first two months of the season.
New York’s lineup is 19th in WAR, 15th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA and Mize has four consecutive quality starts entering this matchup.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Obviously, Cole has been great throughout his career vs. the Tigers, but his advanced numbers are even more mind-boggling. This is the main reason I recommend BETTING a half unit on the YANKEES -0.5 (-155) FIRST 5 INNINGS run line.
Hitters on Detroit’s current roster have 83 plate appearances vs. Cole, and the overwhelming Cy Young favorite has a 50.6% strikeout rate, 0.80 FIP, .189 expected wOBA and .225 expected slugging percentage.
I’d go heavier on this, but I have a hunch Mize could extend his quality start streak to five outings.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Yankees clubbed the Tigers by a combined score of 18-4 in their three-game sweep, and they are expecting Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup Friday.
But, my read is if this game goes Over it’ll most likely be due to New York raking Detroit’s weak bullpen, Cole will be dominant, and Mize will grind out a solid outing at least.
Both starters are former first overall picks, and Mize is expected to have Ace-level stuff in coming seasons.
The play: Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 3.5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a quarter unit.
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