The New York Yankees (6-3) open a 3-game road series against the Cleveland Guardians (6-4) Monday. First pitch at Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2023. New York won the regular-season series 5-1 in 2022 before eliminating Cleveland 3-2 in an AL Division Series.
The Yankees took 2 of 3 games in a weekend series at the Baltimore Orioles while cashing the Over twice. New York has won all 3 of its series to date with 2 victories and 1 loss.
The Guardians lost the first 2 games of a home series against the Seattle Mariners over the weekend but won 7-6 in the finale as +119 underdogs. Cleveland has dropped 3 of the past 5 games after opening the season 4-1. The Over is 5-1-1 across the past 7 games.
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Yankees at Guardians projected starters
RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Shane Bieber
German (0-1, 7.71 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He allowed 4 ER on 4 H and 0 BB with 8 K across 4 2/3 IP in a loss against the Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday.
- Last season on the road: 0-4, 3.46 ERA (39 IP, 15 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 30 K, .248 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Last season in night games: 2-4, 3.05 ERA (56 IP, 19 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 40 K, .228 OBA in 10 starts and 1 relief appearance
Bieber (0-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 0.83 WHIP, 0.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 12 IP.
- Has 2 quality starts (QS) through 2 road outings with just 1 BB with 10 K across 12 IP
- Allowed 3 ER on 3 H with 1 BB with 7 K across 6 IP in an 89-pitch no-decision at the Oakland Athletics Tuesday in his most recent start
- Last faced the Yankees on April 24, 2021, allowing 2 ER on 4 H and 3 BB with 9 K across 7 IP in a 2-1 loss
Yankees at Guardians odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Guardians -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-165) | Guardians -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 4, Guardians 3
Moneyline
The YANKEES (+120) are a tremendous value as road underdogs. New York dominated the regular-season series in 2022, taking 5 of 6 meetings from Cleveland. That includes 2 wins in a 3-game set at Progressive Field in the regular season on July 2-3 as the Yankees outscored the Guardians 19-7.
Run line/Against the spread
YANKEES +1.5 (-165) aren’t terribly overpriced if you want a little insurance and can’t bring yourself to play New York straight up.
New York has won 4 of the past 5 games against right-handed starting pitchers and has won 57 of its last 77 tries against AL Central foes, a .740 winning percentage.
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Over/Under
UNDER 7.5 (-105) is the lean.
The Under has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games on the road for the Yankees and is 6-1 in their past 7 against teams with a winning record. The Under is also 5-2 in the past 7 series openers for New York dating back to last season.
The Under is 13-3 in the past 16 games for the Guardians against AL East foes while cashing at a 9-3 clip in the past 12 against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600.
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