The New York Yankees (72-42) are in Fenway Park Sunday for the rubber match of their 3-game series with the Boston Red Sox (56-59). First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston won the series opener 3-2 in extra innings Friday before N.Y. rallied to win 3-2 Saturday.
Season series: New York leads 7-5, outscoring Boston by 27 runs (78-51)
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Yankees at Red Sox projected starters
RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Michael Wacha
Taillon is 11-2 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 120 2/3 IP over 22 starts.
- Last start: Won 9-4 Monday at the Seattle Mariners with 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 6 K
- 2022 vs. the Red Sox: 1-0 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 9 H, 4 HR, 1 BB and 8 K in 2 starts.
Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 70 1/3 IP across 13 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Boston’s 6-5 win at the Toronto Blue Jays June 28 with 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 2 K
- Wacha has been sidelined since June 28 with inflammation in his throwing shoulder
- 2021 vs. the Yankees: 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA (21 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.36 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 in 5 starts while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays
Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Yankees -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Red Sox +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+115) | Red Sox +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5, Red Sox 3
Money line
RISK 1 unit on the YANKEES (-140) instead of betting to win 1 unit because N.Y.’s bullpen has been terrible lately and the Yankees are just 2-8 straight up in their last 10 games.
But, the Red Sox (+115) are just 3-7 SU in the last 10 and 7-14 SU as home underdogs. Also, the Yankees are 13-6 SU in their last 19 meetings with the Red Sox. New York has a 3-phase edge over Boston in starting and relief pitching and hitting.
If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the YANKEES (-140) to earn a $71.43 profit instead of betting $140 to win $100.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Yankees -1.5 (+115) are just 4-8 RL vs. the Red Sox +1.5 (-140) in 2022 and 20-30 RL as road favorites.
Over/Under
BET a HALF-UNIT on the UNDER 9.5 (-125) as a fade against a pro-Over betting market and the Yankees-Red Sox 8-4 O/U record this season.
For instance, more than 80% of the money is on the Over 9.5 (+100) according to Pregame.com, but the Under is suspiciously cheaper. Also, N.Y. is 0-3-1 O/U in the last 4 games.
I’d go light on the UNDER 9.5 (-125) because Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue that ranks 6th in park factor, Wacha is working back from injury and the Yankees are 12-10 O/U in Taillon’s 12 starts.
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