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The New York Yankees (19-12) and Baltimore Orioles (19-10) meet for the 3rd matchup of a 4-game set Wednesday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 2-0
New York got blanked 2-0 Monday evening and only got 2 solo HRs from C Austin Wells and OF Juan Soto in a 4-2 defeat Tuesday.
Orioles starters RHP Grayson Rodriguez and RHP Dean Kremer were both credited with victories in their respective matchups and have been crucial to Baltimore’s ascension to 1st place in the AL East. Rodriguez has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of his 6 starts, while Kremer has served up 3 or fewer in 5 of his 6 outings.
Yankees at Orioles projected starters
RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Gil (1-1, 4.01 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 6.9 BB/9 and 12.8 K/9 in 24 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-6 loss in 11 innings at Milwaukee Brewers Friday
- Has the 4th-best Stuff+ (121) out of 133 pitchers with at least 20 IP according to Fangraphs
Burnes (3-0, 2.55 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 55 1/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3-2 loss in 11 innings vs. Oakland A’s Friday
- Has the 2nd-shortest odds (+350 at FanDuel Sportsbook) to win the AL Cy Young behind Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal (+300)
- Has induced the 2nd-highest infield fly ball percentage in the AL (21.6%)
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Yankees at Orioles odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:07 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +134 (bet $100 to win $134) | Orioles -158 (bet $158 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-156) | Orioles -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Yankees at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Baltimore 4, New York 3
Moneyline
PASS.
I would rather get a run and a half with a little less juice.
Run line/Against the spread
BET YANKEES +1.5 (-156).
This is still a good amount of juice, so if you want to build a RL parlay, consider the BOSTON RED SOX +1.5 (-205 vs. San Francisco Giants, 7 p.m. ET) as a dance partner with N.Y. +1.5 (-156), as Boston RHP Kutter Crawford has yet to allow a HR in 33 1/3 innings. The 2-leg parlay pays out +144.
Burnes has been solid, but none of the teams he has faced this season won a playoff game last year.
The 29-year-old’s 10.6% barrel percentage is on the higher side among eligible pitchers, so there might be more potential for the Yankees to score early on in the game rather than against the likes of RHP Yennier Cano and LHP Danny Coulombe in the O’s pen.
The Yankees lineup this season is much more dangerous with Soto, who is riding an 8-game hitting streak. New York’s team .339 OBP vs. righties is the highest in the AL in big part due to Soto’s .460 OBP, which is the best in the AL.
The top of the lineup with SS Anthony Volpe and CF Aaron Judge combined with a bullpen that has served up only 7 HRs this season (2nd-fewest in AL) should be able help keep this a 1-run game.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).
While Judge has generated some power recently with 3 HRs in his last 7 games, he leads MLB in GIDP with 10. Plus, Yankees cleanup hitter DH Giancarlo Stanton has a sub-.300 OBP and looked lost vs. RHP Jacob Webb Tuesday night.
Ultimately, both lineups have great hitters, but with the fences in their 3rd year of being pushed back in left field at Oriole Park, those fly balls don’t go out like they used to. Expect a 3rd straight Under in this series.
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