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The New York Yankees (19-10) and Baltimore Orioles (17-10) open a 4-game set Monday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Orioles won 7-6 last season
The Yankees took 2 of 3 from the Brewers in Milwaukee, scoring a combined 30 runs on Saturday and Sunday in a pair of victories. CF Aaron Judge is 5 for his last 8 with HRs in consecutive games, and 1B Anthony Rizzo became just the 161st player in MLB history to record 300 HRs.
The Orioles dropped 2 of 3 over the weekend at home against the Oakland A’s. Despite going 0 for 5 Sunday in a 7-6 loss, SS Gunnar Henderson has homered in 3 of his last 5 games and leads the team in HRs (9) and RBIs (22).
Yankees at Orioles projected starters
RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Schmidt (0-0, 4.66 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 in 25 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-3 home victory vs. Oakland Wednesday
- 2023 vs. Baltimore: 2-1, 5.40 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.42 WHIP in 4 starts
Rodriguez (3-1, 4.45 ERA) makes his 6th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 28 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 7-4 loss at Los Angeles Angels Tuesday
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 0.00 ERA (6 1/3 IP), 3 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 1-0 home victory July 28, 2023
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Yankees at Orioles odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Orioles -118 (bet $118 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+146) | Orioles +1.5 (-178)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -118 | U: -104)
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Yankees at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
New York 5, Baltimore 4
Moneyline
BET YANKEES (+100).
Rodriguez allowed a career high 11 hits in his last start, and the Yankees currently possess the top home-run-to-fly-ball rate (with Baltimore in 2nd) at 15.3%. Expect the hot Bronx Bomber bats to get to Rodriguez and an Orioles bullpen that has sorely missed RHP Felix Bautista.
Run line/Against the spread
COMBINE ORIOLES +1.5 (-178) IN A PARLAY.
The O’s pen is now going to be without RHP Craig Kimbrel, who exited Sunday with upper-back tightness after blowing 2 saves over the weekend.
However, this is still a unit that features RHP Yennier Cano, who features a 2.45 ERA and mainly 2 pitches: a sinker and a nasty changeup.
The 30-year-old has the 2nd-highest GB% among 349 pitchers entering Monday with at least 10 innings pitched, and LHP Danny Coulombe is 9th among that group in K% (36.8%) with LHP Keegan Akin right behind him at 35.8%.
Baltimore has the offense to hang with the Yankees, as 3B Jordan Westburg, LF Colton Cowser, C Adley Rutschman and 1B Ryan Mountcastle are all hitting above .300. I just expect Schmidt to outpitch Rodriguez, which will ultimately be the 1-run difference.
Over/Under
PASS.
Ever since they moved the fences back at Oriole Park, this is not the bandbox that it once was. However, since the Yankees are coming in with plenty of offensive momentum, it’s hard to back the Under in this spot.
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