The New York Yankees (72-52) drop by Truist Park Monday to start a two-game interleague series with the Atlanta Braves (68-56) at 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Each team has nine of their last 10 games with all those Braves victories coming on the road, and the Yankees’ including a three-game sweep over the Boston Red Sox and two straight wins at the Chicago White Sox.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
LHP Jordan Montgomery takes the hill for the Yankees. Montgomery is 4-5 with a 3.77 ERA (119 1/3 IP, 50 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 22 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB and 6 K in New York’s 5-3 victory over the Boston Red Sox Tuesday.
- 2021 road splits: 2-2 with a 4.14 ERA (63 IP, 29 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 2.9 K/BB in 12 starts.
RHP Huascar Ynoa is on the mound for the Braves. Ynoa is 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA (50 IP, 15 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in nine starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Atlanta’s 2-0 victory at the Miami Marlins Tuesday.
- Career home splits: 3-0 with a 3.53 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.04 WHIP and 4.6 K/BB in six starts and three bullpen outings.
Yankees at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Braves +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)
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Prediction
Yankees 5, Braves 3
Money line (ML)
Ynoa looked good in his first start off the IL last week, but that was against a losing Marlins team. The Yankees are white-hot. The only team playing as well as New York in the past 30 games is Atlanta.
However, the Yankees batters have a better WAR and wRC+ than the Braves this month. Also, New York’s bullpen has the best WAR, third-best xFIP and fifth-best home run per nine-inning rate in August.
Furthermore, this is a better spot for the Yankees because they have a higher road winning percentage than the Braves do at home. On top of that, Atlanta’s 22-12 record against lefty starters is misleading.
For instance, the Braves batters are 22nd in wRC+, 13th in wOBA and 12th in BB/K vs. left-handed pitching. Also, Atlanta is just 5-6 overall with a minus-10.7% return on investment in home games against lefty starters as -125 money line favorites or worse.
I know that last part was a little wordy, but what the previous statement tells us is it’s more profitable fading Atlanta at home against good teams with a lefty on the mound.
GIMME the YANKEES (-105) for 1 unit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because New York is 19-24 ATS as a home favorite and 7-8 ATS in interleague games while Atlanta is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-125) for a tiny wager, if at all, because I much prefer New York’s money line more than the total.
However, this is a “pros vs. joes” spot with the presumed “sharp” money favoring the Under whereas the public is betting the Over, according to Pregame.com.
But, the Over has a 31.7% ROI (13-6 O/U) with an average score of 6.2-4.4 in Atlanta’s home games against left-handed starters. I’m not stoked on an Under position in this Yankees-Braves meeting.
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