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The New York Mets (26-35) and Washington Nationals (27-33) wrap up a 3-game set at Nationals Park Wednesday. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-0
The Mets opened the series with a 6-3 win Monday and then rode their hot hand to an 8-7 victory Tuesday. It was a full team effort, as 5 players ended with an RBI.
New York is 12-14 on the road this season and has won 4 of its last 6 games. Despite its recent success, New York still sits 4th in the NL East. It is 28-33 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
The Nationals have lost 4 of their last 5 games and dropped to 3rd in the NL East. They are just 2-5 in their last 7 home games and 10-15 straight up at Nationals Park this season. Washington is 36-24 ATS.
Mets at Nationals projected starters
RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Patrick Corbin
Severino (3-2, 3.52 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 64 IP.
- Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 10-9 home victory over Arizona Diamondbacks Friday
- 2024 road splits: 0-1, 5.16 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 18 H, 1 HR, 11 BB, 21 K in 4 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (6 2/3 IP), 1 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 9-1 home victory with New York Yankees Aug. 23, 2023
Corbin (1-6, 5.83 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.67 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.6 K/9 in 66 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 5 K in 7-1 road setback to Cleveland Guardians Friday
- 2024 home splits: 0-2, 5.52 ERA (29 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 31 H, 5 HR, 13 BB, 19 K in 5 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 8-11, 4.83 ERA (154 2/3 IP, 83 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 27 starts and 1 relief appearance, including 2-1 with 8.04 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 14 ER) in 3 starts last season
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Mets at Nationals odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -148 (bet $148 to win $100) | Nationals +126 (bet $100 to win $126)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+108) | Nationals +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Mets at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 6, Nationals 5
Moneyline
PASS.
There’s just no real value here.
The Nationals to win isn’t a terrible play, but Corbin has been less than impressive over his last few starts, depleting the value of that potential play. Similarly, the Mets (-148) haven’t been great following a win, so avoid them as sizable favorites.
Run line/Against the spread
BET NATIONALS +1.5 (-130).
The Mets are just 11-14 following a win, while the Nationals are 18-14 after a loss, both of which apply to this Wednesday afternoon battle. The Nationals have lost 4 of their last 7 games, but 2 of those defeats have come by just 1 run.
Washington is 12-10 ATS as a home underdog on the year and is the best team by ATS record in MLB with a 60% cover rate (36-24 ATS). The Mets, at 45.9%, are in the bottom half of the league. Take Washington to bounce back, and bet NATIONALS +1.5 (-130).
Over/Under
BET OVER 9.5 (+100).
The Nationals have gone Over in Corbin’s last 3 starts, allowing 7, 9 and 10 runs in those outings. They are 5-4-1 O/U in their last 10 games and have found some rhythm offensively as well, scoring at least 5 runs in 2 of their last 3.
The Mets are 4-0-1 O/U in their last 5. They have tallied at least 4 runs in each game during that span and allowed at least 5 in 4 of those outings. They are 32-27-2 O/U on the season. Put it all together, and back OVER 9.5 (+100).
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