The New York Mets (35-26) travel to the nation’s capital to open a four-game series with the Washington Nationals (30-35) at Nationals Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York had its three-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a 2-0 loss to the Chicago Cubs, but the Mets took the first three games of that series and are 14-6 in their last 20 games.
Washington has won four in a row and five of its last six including a three-game sweep vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates and two victories against the NL West-leading San Francisco Giants.
Season series: Mets lead 2-1.
LHP Joey Lucchesi is the projected starter for the Mets. Lucchesi is 1-4 with a 5.18 ERA (33 IP, 19 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across seven starts and three bullpen appearances.
- Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K in New York’s 7-3 loss vs. the San Diego Padres Sunday.
- vs. Nationals on the current roster: 40 at-bats with a .225/.295/.425 slash line, 9/4 K/BB, 2 HR and 5 RBIs.
RHP Erick Fedde makes his 10th start for the Nationals. Fedde is 4-4 with a 3.86 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 7 K Saturday vs. the Giants.
- Fedde took a loss earlier this season to the Mets with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 3 K in Washington’s 6-0 defeat.
- vs. Mets on the current roster: 69 at-bats with a .246/.333/.333 slash line, 14/7 K/BB, 1 HR and 9 RBIs.
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Mets at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Nationals -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+150) | Nationals +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Nationals 6, Mets 3
Money line (ML)
GIMME the NATIONALS (-115) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit because Washington’s lineup has hit lefties very well this season and I give Fedde the starting pitching edge over Lucchesi.
For example, the Nationals batters are top-10 in several advanced hitting categories against LHP such as wRC+, wOBA and OPS.
Also, even though Fedde’s basic stat line wasn’t that impressive in his start against the Mets earlier this season, there are positive advanced numbers from that outing that gives me hope we’ll get a quality start from Fedde.
For instance, Fedde’s 6.7% hard-hit rate was by far his lowest of the season that start, despite his contact rate that day of 88.4% being the second-highest of any start this year.
Furthermore, Lucchesi has a road record of 0-4 in 7 appearances, with a 7.29 ERA, .354 opponent’s wOBA, and .538 slugging percentage, while surrendering 17 of his 19 runs away from Citi Field. Comparatively, his home record is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA, .269 opponent’s wOBA and .275 slugging percentage.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Slight “LEAN” to the alternate spread of NATIONALS -1.5 (+165) for a quarter unit because Washington’s bullpen is well-rested so I have faith the relievers can lock down a multi-run lead given to them.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because I think Washington’s lineup does some damage today but the Nationals are 9-26 O/U at home and a 1-7-1 O/U when Fedde gets the start.
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