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The New York Mets (79-66) and Toronto Blue Jays (69-77) wrap up a 3-game series Wednesday. First pitch from Rogers Centre is set for 3:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Blue Jays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Mets picked up a 3-2 victory in the series opener Monday, but it was on the short end of a 6-2 loss on Tuesday. The Under (8.5) cashed Monday, while pushing (8) at most shops on Tuesday. That total has gone low at a 3-0-1 pace in the previous 4 contests.
New York has picked up 10 victories in the past 12 outings since Aug. 29, playing itself into playoff position, tied with the Atlanta Braves at 79-66 with 17 regular season games remaining.
Toronto has dropped 6 of the past 8 contests, and while it is mathematically still alive for a postseason berth, it is 8 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot with just 16 games remaining.
The Under is 4-1-1 in the past 6 games for the Blue Jays, while going 9-3-1 in the previous 13 outings.
Mets at Blue Jays projected starters
LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Bowden Francis
Manaea (11-5, 3.43 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.10 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 157 1/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H (2 HR), 2 BB, 9 K in 1 6-4 home win in 10 innings vs. Cincinnati Reds
- 2024 road splits: 6-2, 2.90 ERA, 77 2/3 IP, 25 ER, 6 HR, 1.15 WHIP, .206 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 31 BB, 71 K in 14 starts
- Career vs. Blue Jays: 2-0, 3.50 ERA, 36 IP, 14 ER, 5 HR, 1.03 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 6 appearances (5 starts)
Francis (8-4, 3.72 ERA) makes his 11th start and 25th appearance. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 84 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 0 BB, 6 K in 4-2 home setback vs. Philadelphia Phillies last Wednesday
- 2024 home splits: 3-1, 4.41 ERA, 34 2/3 IP, 17 ER, 6 HR, 1.10 WHIP, .233 OBA, 8 BB, 35 K in 11 appearances (3 starts)
- Has never faced Mets
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Mets at Blue Jays odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Blue Jays +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+134) | Blue Jays +1.5 (-162)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Mets at Blue Jays picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Blue Jays 3
Moneyline
The METS (-120) are a strong play in the series finale, as the southpaw Manaea goes against his former team. Look for the lefty to pitch with a little extra gear in his old stomping grounds.
New York is in the hunt for a postseason, and it has been red-hot with 10 victories in the past 12 outings. The Blue Jays (+102) are still technically alive, but they’re running on fumes and about to be put to bed.
Run line/Against the spread
If you’re a little more on the conservative side, playing the BLUE JAYS +1.5 (-162) is not priced out of line. This should be a well-pitched game for both sides, with the home side coming up just a little short against their former southpaw.
However, the Mets -1.5 (+134) have failed to cover the past 3 games on the run line, including 2 outright losses.
Over/Under
UNDER 8.5 (-122) might be the best play on the board.
The New York offense has managed a total of just 6 runs in the past 3 outings, while the Under is 3-0-1 in the previous 4 contests. The Under is 8-3-1 across the past 12 outings, too, while the total has gone low at a 5-3 clip in the previous 8 starting assignments by Manaea.
For Toronto, the Under is 2-0-1 in the past 3 games, and 2-1-1 in the past 4 outings at home. The total has gone low in 5 straight starts by Francis, as well.
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