The New York Mets (37-19) head to Petco Park Monday to start a 3-game series with the San Diego Padres (33-21) at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York is 8-2 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a split of a 4-game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday-Sunday.
San Diego is 5-5 SU in the last 10 but won the last 3 of a 4-game series at the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday-Sunday.
Season series: First meeting – the Mets won last year’s season series 4-3 despite being outscored 23-18.
Padres at Mets projected starters
RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. LHP Blake Snell
Carrasco is 6-1 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 57 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start: 5-0 home win vs. the Washington Nationals Wednesday behind 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 5 BB and 5 K
- Never faced San Diego in 13-year career
Snell is 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA (15 IP, 8 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8 H, 2 HR, 8 BB and 18 K in 3 starts.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3-2 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
- 2021 vs. the Mets: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 4 BB, 14 K in 2 starts
Padres at Mets odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:41 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Padres -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+165) | Padres +1.5 (-205)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!
Padres at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Mets 2
Money line
BET 1 unit on the PADRES (-117).
The Mets are just 9-9 SU vs. lefty starters and their lineup ranks 16th in wRC+ (104), 15th in wOBA (.310) and 23rd in hard-hit rate (27.3%) against left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market with the presumed sharp money being on San Diego’s ML. More money is on the Padres, while more bets have been placed on the Mets, according to Pregame.com.
Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, let’s follow the money. BET PADRES (-117).
Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 6/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Padres are 7-16 RL at home, while the Mets -1.5 are 19-10 RL on the road. I wouldn’t bet San Diego’s ML and New York’s RL.
PASS.
Over/Under
BET 1 unit on UNDER 7.5 (-120).
These teams are a combined 4-9 O/U when these starters take the hill, the Padres are 6-16-1 O/U at home and Petco Park has the lowest park factor – meaning it’s the most pitcher-friendly venue in the MLB.
Also, there’s a line freeze in the betting market with a majority of the action on Over 7.5 (-105), but the total hasn’t budged off the opener, according to Pregame.com. This suggests oddsmakers are confident in their price and willing to take more pro-Over money.
Go the other way and BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).
Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]