The New York Mets (47-42) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (36-56) play the finale of a three-game set Sunday at PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Taijuan Walker is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 7-3 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 over 90 IP across 16 starts.
Walker received a no-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 2 K in the Mets’ 13-4 victory over Pittsburgh in his last start July 9.
RHP JT Brubaker is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates. He is 4-9 with a 4.47 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 across 88 2/3 IP in 16 starts.
Brubaker hasn’t won in five decisions and six starts dating back to May 29 at home against the Colorado Rockies. His last start was opposite Walker against Mets July 9 at Citi Field where he allowed 6 runs on 6 hits and a walk with 7 strikeouts in just 5 innings in the Pirates’ 13-4 loss.
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Mets at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:57 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Pirates +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+125) | Pirates +1.5 (-155)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Mets 5, Pirates 1
Money line (ML)
The METS (-135) are reasonably priced for the Walker-Brubaker rematch from just before the All-Star break. Walker has allowed more than 2 ER just once in his last six starts, and while his road splits aren’t as good as his home numbers they’re still workable with a 3.30 ERA across 43 2/3 IP through eight starts.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The METS -1.5 (+125) are an even better value on the run line. New York is 13-3 with Walker on the mound, including eight victories of more than two runs. Walker has only allowed more than 2 ER on three occasions all season, so it’s going to be difficult for the Pirates to hang around, while the offense should do enough against the struggling Brubaker for the cover.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8 (-110) as Walker has allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but three of his 16 starts this season. Further, heading into Saturday’s game, the Pirates had scored 3 or fewer runs in 10 of their past 15 contests.
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