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The New York Mets (71-81) open a 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (83-69) Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 4-2
The Mets cruised to an 8-3 win over the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. N.Y. is 8 games back of the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the NL with only 10 games remaining on its schedule.
The Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in extra innings Wednesday as 2B Bryson Stott hit a 2-run double in the top of the 10th inning to win. Philadelphia has won 4 of its last 6 games and currently holds the top Wild Card Spot in the NL.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Peterson (3-8, 5.22 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 100 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 10 K in a 5-3 home loss to the Cincinnati Reds Friday.
- 2023 road stats: 1-6, 7.35 ERA (49 IP, 40 ER) in 10 starts and 2 relief appearances.
- Career vs. Phillies: 1-2, 4.83 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 17 ER) in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.
Suarez (3-6, 3.80 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 113 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in a 6-1 road victory over the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
- Home stats: 0-3, 4.94 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 30 ER) in 10 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.73 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 13 ER) in 5 starts and 7 relief appearances
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Mets at Phillies odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:44 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-140) | Phillies -1.5 (+115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Mets 3
Moneyline
While the Phillies (-175) should come away with the win on Thursday, I’ll PASS on their moneyline at the current odds. If you can get Philadelphia’s moneyline at -160 odds or better, then I’d feel more comfortable playing it straight up.
Run line/Against the spread
PHILLIES -1.5 (+115) is the play in this game with Philadelphia being the much better team at this point in the season. In the first 6 meetings between these NL East teams this season, 5 of them were decided by at least 2 runs.
Peterson has dreadful road splits this season and the Phillies boast the 5th-best ISO (.225), the 8th-best wOBA (.356), and the 8th-best wRC+ (123) against left-handed pitching since the beginning of August.
Over/Under
UNDER 9 (-120) is the lean in this contest despite the Phillies swinging a hot bat right now. The Under is 5-1 in the first 6 meetings between N.Y. and Philadelphia this season.
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