The New York Mets (18-9) visit Citizens Bank Park to open a 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (11-14) Thursday. The series opener is slated for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Mets lead 4-2
The Mets are coming off a 2-2 series split at home vs. the Atlanta Braves. New York has been exceptional away from home, going 9-4 and outscoring opponents 61-43.
The Phillies are coming off back-to-back home losses in a 2-game set with the Texas Rangers. Philadelphia lost 2 of 3 at New York last weekend and has dropped 4 of its last 5.
Mets at Phillies projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is tabbed for his third start of the season. He has a 0.57 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 7 IP.
- Has faced these Phillies in his only other two starts (April 11, 30): 7 IP, 2H, 0R, 2 BB, 5K.
- Current Phillies bats own an aggregate .844 OPS against him.
Nola (1-3, 3.90 ERA) has clocked a 0.94 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 27 2/3 IP.
- Facing New York for a second straight outing and a third time in 2022. Owns a 3.55 ERA across his last 5 starts against the Mets, including a 5.79 ERA (6 ER, 9 1/3 IP) and 0-2 record this year.
- Owns a career Citizens Bank Park ERA of 3.14 alongside a 1.07 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 4.4 to 1.
Mets at Phillies odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL): Mets +1.5 (-150) | Phillies -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 6, Mets 4
Money line
Nola is in a likable spot at home and with a set of surface numbers that don’t match up with better underlying support figures. The Mets may be getting a bit too much credit for their performance to date against right-handers due to a .320 batting average on balls in play.
Walker threw just 73 pitches in his last start and is not stretched out.
Peg some MODERATE VALUE ON PHILADELPHIA (-170).
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Run line/Against the spread
Both bullpens yield a lot of fly balls, and with a batter’s wind in the forecast, the Phils winning by a larger margin is enough in play.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+122).
Over/Under
While there’s a lean on the Over 8.5 (-105), there’s just not enough ammo on either side to move the needle. PASS.
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