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The New York Mets (46-53) and New York Yankees (53-47) meet Tuesday for the front end of a 2-game Subway Series in the Bronx. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Mets dropped 2 of 3 to the Red Sox in a weekend series at Fenway Park. They have slashed a subpar .188/.276/.321 in going 4-7 over their last 11 games.
The Yankees are coming off a 3-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals. But New York’s American League entry has also struggled on offense in the recent past. From July 5-19, the Yanks went 2-9 with a .630 OPS.
Both teams were idle on Monday.
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Mets at Yankees projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Domingo German
Verlander (4-5, 3.47 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has registered a 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 83 innings.
- Owns a 2.25 ERA over his last 7 starts
- ERA is his would-be single-season highest since 2014 (4.54)
- Has registered a 6.84 ERA over his last 4 road starts
- Owns a 2.48 ERA over his last 5 starts against New York (2018-23)
German (5-6, 4.52 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 97 2/3 innings.
- Has had some clunkers over the last month, but does own a solid 3.47 ERA in his last 33 2/3 IP at home
- Current-roster Mets batters own an aggregate .797 OPS against him
Mets at Yankees odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Yankees +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+136) | Yankees +1.5 (-164)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Mets at Yankees picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Yankees 4
Moneyline
The Mets have underplayed their talent so far and figure to be a moderate play in a lot of games in the near future. But peg Verlander as being too far over his skis with his good recent numbers. Over his last 9 starts, the veteran righty has benefited from a .267 batting average on balls in play, 77.1% left-on-base rate, and 7% home runs/fly balls rate.
Cross signals make for a PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Same as above; no interest in forcing something here. AVOID.
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Over/Under
The Yanks got their offense cranked up over the weekend, scoring 18 runs over 3 games. Since July 3, games at Yankee Stadium have seen the Over go 6-2-2.
With some fade lean working against Verlander and the Yankee bullpen, and with German being the frequent sufferer of bouts of gopher-itis, BACK THE OVER 8.5 (-115).
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