The New York Mets (73-80) face the Milwaukee Brewers (92-62) Saturday in the second game of a three-game series at American Family Field. The Brewers won the series opener 5-1 Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Mets LHP Rich Hill (6-7, 3.87 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st appearance. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 148 2/3 IP.
- He is 0-3 across 10 starts and one relief appearance since joining New York. The Mets are 4-6 when he starts.
- Allowed 2 runs on 6 hits across 4 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win Sept. 19 against the Philadelphia Phillies his last time out.
Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.34 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and league-leading 12.6 K/9 through 158 IP.
- Has won eight straight decisions and has not taken a loss in a game since May 25.
- The Brewers have not lost in his last 11 starts. The last time they lost with him on the mound was July 7 at the Mets when he allowed 1 earned run on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings.
Mets at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-125) | Brewers -1.5 (+102)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
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Prediction
Brewers 4, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
The Mets only have one win in their last nine games. They are 29-47 on the road and 36-52 against winning teams this season.
You can’t ignore the fact that the Brewers have won Burnes’ last 11 starts. They did lose five games in a row and were swept by the Cardinals before Friday’s opener, but they had won 9 of their 12 games prior.
Take the BREWERS (-220).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Six of the Mets’ last eight losses were by at least 2 runs. At 34-42 ATS, the Mets have the third-worst record against the spread on the road.
Only two of the Brewers’ last 20 wins have been one-run games. They are 85-69 ATS overall this season.
As I expect a Brewers outright win, you can bet they will also cover.
Take the BREWERS -1.5 (+102).
Over/Under (O/U)
Eight of the last 12 games for the Mets had totals of 8 or more runs, while five of the last eight games for the Brewers have had totals of 8 or more.
However, none of the four games between the teams this season reached 8 total runs.
Only one of Hill’s last six starts has had 8 or more runs, while half of Burnes’ last eight starts have had at least 8 runs.
We should expect more good pitching Saturday.
Take UNDER 7.5 (-115).
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