New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (73-80) face the Milwaukee Brewers (92-62) Saturday in the second game of a three-game series at American Family Field. The Brewers won the series opener 5-1 Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets LHP Rich Hill (6-7, 3.87 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st appearance. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 148 2/3 IP.

  • He is 0-3 across 10 starts and one relief appearance since joining New York. The Mets are 4-6 when he starts.
  • Allowed 2 runs on 6 hits across 4 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win Sept. 19 against the Philadelphia Phillies his last time out.

Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.34 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and league-leading 12.6 K/9 through 158 IP.

  • Has won eight straight decisions and has not taken a loss in a game since May 25.
  • The Brewers have not lost in his last 11 starts. The last time they lost with him on the mound was July 7 at the Mets when he allowed 1 earned run on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings.

Mets at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-125) | Brewers -1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

The Mets only have one win in their last nine games. They are 29-47 on the road and 36-52 against winning teams this season.

You can’t ignore the fact that the Brewers have won Burnes’ last 11 starts. They did lose five games in a row and were swept by the Cardinals before Friday’s opener, but they had won 9 of their 12 games prior.

Take the BREWERS  (-220).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Six of the Mets’ last eight losses were by at least 2 runs. At 34-42 ATS, the Mets have the third-worst record against the spread on the road.

Only two of the Brewers’ last 20 wins have been one-run games. They are 85-69 ATS overall this season.

As I expect a Brewers outright win, you can bet they will also cover.

Take the BREWERS -1.5 (+102).

Over/Under (O/U)

Eight of the last 12 games for the Mets had totals of 8 or more runs, while five of the last eight games for the Brewers have had totals of 8 or more.

However, none of the four games between the teams this season reached 8 total runs.

Only one of Hill’s last six starts has had 8 or more runs, while half of Burnes’ last eight starts have had at least 8 runs.

We should expect more good pitching Saturday.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-115).

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