The New York Mets (73-79) and Milwaukee Brewers (91-62) open a three-game series Friday at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Mets RHP Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.57 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 80 2/3 IP.
- Pitched to a 7.66 ERA over 24 2/3 innings across his last five outings.
- Has been hurt by a 17.4% HR/FB rate and has struggled with contact as his Barrel rate, HardHit rate and Average Exit Velocity are all in the 29th or worse percentile.
Brewers LHP Eric Lauer (6-5, 3.03 ERA) makes his 19th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 107 IP.
- Has a 1.90 ERA and allowed only 3 home runs across 42 2/3 innings spanning his last eight starts.
- His xFIP and xERA are nearly a full-run higher than his surface ERA as he has benefitted from a well-below-average .251 BABIP and well-above-average 80.5% left on base rate.
Mets at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)
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Prediction
Brewers 6, Mets 3
Money line (ML)
Milwaukee enters Friday’s contest on a five-game losing skid after being swept at home in a four-game series by the St. Louis Cardinals. New York comes in with just one win in its last eight games.
The Mets have struggled on the road all season, evidenced by their 29-46 record away from Citi Field, and have found no success against left-handed starters against whom they are 17-32.
The Brewers have an edge here in the starting pitching matchup and in relief pitching. This should be an excellent “get right” spot for them.
Back the BREWERS (-145).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Megill has allowed 4 or more earned runs in five of his nine starts since the beginning of August, so there may be adequate opportunity Friday for the Brewers to get their bats back in order after scoring just 10 runs in their four-game series against the Cardinals.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is second in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% over the last 14 days, while New York is very middle-of-the-pack across those categories through the same timeframe.
Anticipating Milwaukee’s bullpen to hang on to any lead it’s given by Lauer, consider there is some value to be had with a play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+140).
Over/Under (O/U)
This number feels too low for two starting pitchers of this caliber, particularly at hitter-friendly Am Fam Field.
There should be enough action Friday to reach the OVER 8.5 (-102).
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