The New York Mets (63-37) wrap up a 3-game series with the Miami Marlins (47-54) Sunday at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
N.Y. won the 1st 2 games of this series by a combined score of 10-4.
Mets SP Carlos Carrasco shut down Miami’s lineup, pitching 7 2/3-scoreless innings, striking out 7 with just 4 hits and 2 walks Saturday. N.Y. SS Francisco Lindor went 3-for-4 at the plate with 1 home run and 2 RBIs.
Season series: N.Y. leads 9-4 and has a plus-24 run differential in those meetings.
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Mets at Marlins projected starters
RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Pablo Lopez
Walker is 8-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 97 2/3 IP over 17 starts.
- Last start: Win, 6-3, Tuesday at home vs. the New York Yankees with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 H, 4 BB and 21 K in 3 starts.
Lopez is 7-5 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 116 IP across 20 starts.
- Last start: Win, 2-1, Tuesday at the Cincinnati Reds with 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 11 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 10 K in 2 starts.
Mets at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:38 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Marlins +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+120) | Marlins +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Marlins 2
Money line
RISK 1 UNIT on the METS (-150) instead of betting to win 1 unit because of the price.
But, the Mets are 12-6 straight up (SU) as road favorites of -140 or greater with an average final score of 4.22-2.61.
Whereas the Marlins (+122) are 1-11 SU as home underdogs vs. right-handed starters with an average final deficit of 4.58-2.67.
Furthermore, Walker’s basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. Miami’s lineup are much better than Lopez’s against N.Y.
Walker has a 24.7% K-rate in 97 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Marlins batters with a .214/.252/.286 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, per Statcast.
On the other hand, Lopez has a 19.8% K-rate in 116 PA vs. current Mets hitters with a .288/.352/.438 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line.
If your standard unit is $100 then “FLAT-BET” that on the METS (-150) to earn a $66.67 profit instead of betting $150 to win $100.
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN METS -1.5 (+120) only because N.Y.’s RL would need to be north of +140 to fully endorse a “sprinkle”.
However, the Mets are 18-13 RL as road favorites, 28-14 RL in NL East games and 7 of N.Y.’s 9 wins vs. Miami this season have been by at least 2 runs.
Also, the Marlins +1.5 (-145) are 3-9 RL as home underdogs vs. right-handed starters with a minus-58.0% return on investment.
Over/Under
PASS.
Both pitching staffs are elite, and the Mets are 5-11-1 O/U in Walker’s starts, but the Under 7.5 (-140) is far too expensive considering the Marlins are 12-8 O/U in Lopez starts.
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