The New York Mets (61-37) visit the Miami Marlins (47-52) Friday at loanDepot park for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: New York leads 7-4 and has a plus-18 run differential in those meetings.
The Mets are 3-3 straight up (SU) since the All-Star break but have won 3 straight games: the series finale vs. the San Diego Padres Sunday and a 2-game sweep of the New York Yankees mid-week.
The Marlins split a 4-game series at the Cincinnati Reds concluding with a 7-6 win Thursday after taking 2-of-3 games at the Pittsburgh Pirates last weekend. Miami is 4-4 SU following the All-Star Game.
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Mets at Marlins projected starters
RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Sandy Alcantara
Bassitt is 7-7 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 109 IP across 18 starts.
- Last start: Loss, 2-1, at home Saturday vs. the San Diego Padres with 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 11 K.
- 2022 vs. the Marlins: 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 17 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 17 K through 3 starts.
Alcantara is 9-4 with a 1.81 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 144 1/3 IP over 20 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Miami’s 6-5 win at the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday with 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 10 K.
- 2022 vs. the Mets: 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA (22 IP, 6 ER), 18 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 16 K over 3 starts.
Mets at Marlins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)
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Mets at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 5, Marlins 1
Money line
BET the METS (-125) because they are taking sharp action, they are 13-1 SU after a rest day and 4-0 SU as road favorites with Bassitt on the mound.
There’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market with roughly 60% of the money on the Mets but a slight majority of the bets placed are on the Marlins, per Pregame.com. It’s wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up a lot more dough.
The Marlins’ love in the market makes sense because Alcantara is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young and Bassitt is at the bottom of N.Y.’s rotation.
However, Bassitt has a 2.98 xFIP since the beginning of June, which includes 3 quality starts vs. the Marlins and a victory in Miami June 25.
New York’s lineup and bullpen are both more productive than Miami’s.
BET the METS (-125).
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Run line/Against the spread
LEAN METS -1.5 (+145) because they are 10-4 RL following a rest day, 16-13 RL as road favorites and 4-0 RL as road favorites with Bassitt on the bump. The Marlins are 2-5 RL when playing with a rest disadvantage and 16-29 RL at home.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 6.5 (-120) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market for the total as well with the presumed sharp money being on the Under, per Pregame.com. Most of the O/U situational trends favor a higher-scoring affair making the UNDER 6.5 (-120) a solid contrarian play.
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