The New York Mets (70-69) meet the Miami Marlins (57-81) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won the series opener Tuesday 9-4, which was keyed by a decisive 3-run top of the 6th inning punctuated by a Mets SS Francisco Lindor 2-run RBI single.
Season series: Mets lead 7-6.
LHP Rich Hill is New York’s projected starter. Hill is 6-6 with a 3.92 ERA (133 IP, 58 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 26 starts and one relief appearance.
- Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 4 K in New York’s 6-2 win at the Washington Nationals Friday.
- Hill has two no-decisions this season against Miami with a 4.00 ERA (9 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K in two starts.
- vs. Marlins on the current roster (50 PA): 5.84 FIP with a .300 batting average (BA), .359 wOBA, .444 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 10.0 K% and 85.8 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins. Alcantara is 8-13 with a 3.36 ERA (171 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 28 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 4-3 loss at the Mets Thursday.
- vs. Mets on the current roster (124 PA): 4.79 FIP with a .293 BA, .343 wOBA, .505 xSLG, 13.7 K% and 86.4 mph EV.
- Home splits: 2-5 with a 2.34 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB in 13 starts.
Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mets -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Marlins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+155) | Marlins +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)
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Prediction
Marlins 4, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the MARLINS (-108) for a half unit because I give them a decent-sized edge in the starting pitching duel and there’s “reverse line movement“(RLM) headed in Miami’s direction.
Alcantara has better pitching peripherals against New York’s lineup than Hill does against Miami’s lineup. Also, Alcantara has a passing grade in EV, xSLG, barrel rate, expected wOBA and ranks in the 91st percentile in chase rate. While Hill grades in the 37th percentile or worse in xSLG, expected wOBA, barrel rate, K% and chase rate.
Nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on New York’s money line according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. However, the Mets have been brought down from a -128 consensus money line favorites to the current price, and it’s always a red flag in sports betting when the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because Miami’s run line insurance is far too pricey considering the roll the Mets have been on recently. New York is 8-2 in its last 10 games, seven of those victories by 2 or more runs.
For the record, the Mets are just 11-24 ATS as road favorites and the Marlins are 23-18 ATS as home underdogs.
However, Miami’s 56.1% cover rate as a home underdog isn’t high enough since the Marlins +1.5 (-180) has an implied win probability of 64.3%.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-130) for a tiny wager because there’s some RLM in the O/U market with the Under being ticked up despite a majority of bets and money being wagered on the Over. Plus the weather forecast is predicting double-digit winds blowing in from centerfield.
Finally, Miami’s lineup ranks in the bottom-4 of the MLB vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K with the lowest hard-hit rate.
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